Edgar Prado and Birdstone broke the collective hearts of the racing world with their stunning defeat of Smarty Jones in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes. Nick Zito’s horse certainly left many horseplayers scratching their heads after it was all over. But the race itself is a case study in the importance of pace and the internal fractions of a race.

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Horse races are easily broken down in terms of velocity, expressed in a feet-per-second calculation. The horse that can cover the most ground expending the least amount of early energy is always a solid bet to win. With Kentucky Derby and Preakness pace-setter Lionheart out of the mix, Smarty’s connections elected to draw an outside post so that jockey Stewart Elliot could survey the pace condition of the race in the opening fractions. Trainer John Servis knew that the best scenario for his horse was to work his way inside, just off the lead and lay in wait for the distance to take its toll on the leader. After all, this is precisely how Smarty Jones came to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

The opening fractions must have pleased Servis and Elliot. The first quarter mile went in a relatively soft 24.33 seconds. Elliot had Smarty Jones in the third position, one length off the lead and four wide in the clubhouse turn. Peter Pan Stakes winner Purge looked to want the lead. But he was thoroughly outclassed and, even with the slow pace, was finished before the race was even a half-mile in. He would eventually finish last.

As the crowd of early leaders hit the opening half-mile point, Purge was giving way as Preakness runner up, and the bettors second choice, Rock Hard Ten began to make his move. Just off Smarty’s right flank jockey Jerry Bailey had Eddington within striking distance. Over the next two furlongs these three horses would battle for the lead in the fastest single fraction in Belmont history. Stewart Elliot gunned for the front position. Smarty Jones stuck his nose in front of Rock Hard Ten to take the lead into the backstretch. With six furlongs to the finish Smarty Jones was now eating up the sandy track at 56.74 feet per second.

Meanwhile, Prado had Birdstone settled in, five wide along the backstretch after breaking clear of a pack of horses through the first turn. Prado must have recognized that the pace up front was incredibly hot. He elected to stay back in hopes that the pace would take its toll on the leaders. But he knew that Smarty Jones was an amazing horse so he couldn’t wait long. If his 35-1 shot had any hope it would take a destructive pace like that which was unfolding off in the distance.

Prado knew that Birdstone had to turn up the jets a bit or risk getting blown out. He asked Birdstone for just a bit more than he had given in the opening half-mile. Over the middle half-mile, Birdstone would cover the backstretch at 55.99 feet per second.

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The second half-mile would determine the winner. The opening half went in 48.65 seconds, but the second half was over two seconds faster, going in 46.79 seconds. To put this in perspective, Secretariat won the 1973 Belmont by over 30 lengths with a time that was almost 3 seconds faster than Birdstone on Saturday. But Secretariat covered the ground between the 4th furlong and the 6th furlong in 23.6 seconds. Smarty Jones shaved a half a second off of Secretariat’s time over that part of the race. Secretariat took over the 1973 Belmont with a second half-mile run in 48 flat. Over the second half-mile on Saturday Smarty Jones was better than a second faster than that.

Legendary trainer Jim “Sunny” Fitzsimmons says that in every true pace battle one horse breaks the spirit of his competitor. He related this axiom to trainer Tom Smith on the day that Smith’s Seabiscuit would break the heart of triple crown winner and 1937 horse of the year War Admiral in the 1938 Pimlico Special. On that day, Seabiscuit went head for head with War Admiral through the backstretch and into the turn. Seabiscuit’s jockey, George Wolfe, would say later that the two horses looked one another in the eye as they battled head and head for the lead. When Wolfe saw War Admiral’s eye rotating in its socket he realized that the horse was in agony and Seabiscuit had broken him. Seabiscuit needed only one tap of the whip to crush War Admiral by four lengths in the stretch drive.

In a similar way, Smarty Jones destroyed Rock Hard Ten across the Belmont Park back stretch. As the horses flew towards the turn for home Smarty Jones was increasing the gap with Rock Hard Ten. Rock Hard Ten was gushing foam through his bit and his tongue was wagging out the side of his mouth. Moments before, Eddington had drifted out of the frame. By the time the horses reached the mid-way point of the turn Smarty Jones had put Rock Hard Ten away for good. Over the backstretch Smarty Jones had made up more than two and a half lengths. He’d run the second half-mile in just over 46 seconds and had covered the ground at a rate of over 56 feet-per-second. By all accounts, Rock Hard Ten was the second best three year old in the world and the toughest competition Smarty Jones has ever faced. In the Preakness, Rock Hard Ten never threatened Smarty Jones. In the Belmont they went head to head for a half-mile and Smarty Jones broke him. This impressive display by Smarty Jones should not be overlooked. Smarty was out running the legendary Secretariat and doing to Rock Hard Ten what Seabiscuit did to War Admiral.

Further back, Birdstone had lost a bit of ground during this time but was still in a favorable position to make a late move. Edgar Prado faced a wall of collapsing horses in front of him. He swung Birdstone out wider to avoid getting caught in a traffic jam. First he circled Eddington and then Rock Hard Ten. But by all appearances Smarty Jones was holding a strong lead, if not widening it.

Throughout the turn Smarty Jones increased his lead by a length and a half. But Birdstone could be seen just on the edge of the picture frame flying with everything he could give. Often times it can look as if one or two horses are running so much faster than the competition that the other horses appear to be moving in slow motion. In actuality, this is an illusion as all the horses are slowing. Some just happen to be slowing down more dramatically than others. Rock Hard Ten and Eddington were so thoroughly beaten by Smarty’s pace in the backstretch that they were literally slowing to a stop at this point. Even Smarty Jones was slowing down at a terrible rate.

The pace duel in the backstretch had drained the energy that Smarty Jones would need if he were challenged in the stretch. He had now expended more energy with a furlong to go than any horse that had ever won the Belmont. Smarty Jones covered the ground between the entrance to the turn and the eighth pole at the top of the stretch nearly two seconds slower than he’d covered the same distance on the back stretch. Even though he appeared to be widening his lead, he was actually slowing down to just 53.22 feet-per-second.

Jockey Stewart Elliot hesitated on the whip with a furlong to go. Birdstone was now the only threat to beat him and he was flying into the lane at 53.62 feet-per-second. When Elliot cracked his whip across Smarty Jones’s flank his horse simply had nothing left to give. Even the glorified platter Royal Assault was gobbling up ground as he passed the horses Smarty Jones had broken two furlongs back.

When the stretch duel was joined at the sixteenth pole, Smarty Jones was covering less than 50 feet-per-second. Edgar Prado asked Birdstone for everything he had left. In the final quarter-mile Birdstone was covering the track at 50.99 feet-per-second to Smarty Jones’s 44.66. The third half-mile went in 52.06 seconds and Smarty Jones gave up nearly 14 lengths of ground to his late challenger. While his backstretch pace had destroyed his most formidable competition, it had taken a terrible toll and opened the door to horses with little chance to beat him coming into the race. Birdstone’s stretch drive may have looked impressive but Smarty Jones was moving slower at this point than some of his workout times.

The great jockeys like Jerry Bailey and Pat Day are said to have amazing internal clocks, with an ability to sense the pace of a race within a fifth of a second. Smarty Jones could have easily held back and rated the pace over the back stretch and let Rock Hard Ten tire out. Similarly, Eddington had proven no match in the Preakness. But Elliot sensed that his horse was game for a fight and he didn’t hold him back. Perhaps he was concerned that two horses were making a move for the lead and didn’t want to get pinned in behind them on the far turn. But Elliot may not have sensed that he was running the third and fourth quarters faster than Secretariat. The second half-mile was simply too much to ask of the little horse from Philly.

In three races Smarty Jones destroyed the best three year olds in the world. But in the Belmont he destroyed himself in the process. Birdstone is not a great racehorse. Birdstone was the beneficiary of a destructive pace. Smarty Jones is, and always will be, a great horse. Losing the Belmont won’t change that. He ran a better race than Real Quiet, War Emblem and Funny Cide. His rider just didn’t settle him down on the backstretch. He was too game for his own good. He very well may go on to crush the competition in the Breeder’s Cup. But the thought of what might have been will always haunt his connections. And that’s why Saturday’s Belmont is a case study into how pace makes the race.

Birdstone’s Belmont win marks the eighth time in the last ten years that a horse from the sire line of Raise a Native has won the Belmont. 1978 winner Affirmed was the first Belmont winner from the Raise a Native line and since then his progeny have won the race thirteen times. It also marked the third straight win for Unbridled’s progeny. Unbridled also comes from Raise a Native’s sire line. The only other sire line with even comparable success is Northern Dancer. Smarty Jones comes from the Northern Dancer sire line via Gone West. Eddington was the only horse in the field besides Birdstone to come from the Raise A Native/Unbridled sire line. In ten years the only exception to this rule was Sarava, who upset War Emblem’s bid in 2002. Edgar Prado rode Sarava in that race. Birdstone’s win also keeps alive the theory that to win the Belmont the horse must have raced at least once across track in its lifetime. With a 20-1 morning line, bet down to 35-1, Birdstone should have been a sure bet at that price. I bought win tickets on Eddington instead. Had to spend Sunday trying to make it all back on a sloppy track at Calder. I won’t be fooled next June.