The long weekend afforded a break from the not-so-exciting action that is the preliminary pool play in the World Cup. I can’t really put my finger on it, but the preliminary round was actually pretty boring. Sure, tremendous talent was on display and the games were up-tempo. But I had trouble shaking the feeling that the game I was watching really didn’t matter much. Playing for seeding just doesn’t get my juices flowing. Yes, home-ice is a big advantage in the World Cup. But not having home-ice isn’t a big deal for Team USA, who is playing Russia in the quarterfinals, because Russia’s home is St. Paul for tournament purposes. See what I mean? Team USA wasn’t going to win the top spot after their opening game loss to Canada. Their games against Russia and Slovakia were for seed only. Not exactly compelling drama.
But the preliminary round did answer some lingering questions. First and foremost, what kind of team would the Russians put together? With the notable defections of their captain Sergei Federov and the two best goaltenders with citizenship, there was some concern over their ability to compete. Sweden’s goaltending concerns were another issue. Tommy Salo and Mikael Tellqvist are still competing for playing time in the elimination round. And, would the Canadians play strong from the get-go, unlike their trip to Salt Lake in 2002? That question was definitely answered in the affirmative. Canada earned the right to play all of their games of the entire tournament in Canada. They have a real chance to complete the World Cup without a loss or tie, an astounding feat.
What’s wrong with the Americans?
I see three primary problems with Team USA through the preliminary round of play. One, their aging stars lack the offensive creativity to score bushels of goals against the more dynamic (and younger) players in the pool. Second, the Americans aren’t playing with any energy or desperation. Keith Tkachuk has shown the most desire but his frustration is beginning to eclipse his determination. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the American team is too slow, especially on defense.
At the pace they’re scoring they’ll need to win their elimination games by a score of 1-0. That’s a pipe dream. Robert Esche was fantastic against Canada and Russia. He deserves at least three-goals-per-game in support. Managing only one goal against Martin Brodeur is understandable. But one goal against the heretofore unheard of Ilya Bryzgalov is inexcusable.
When you get right down to it, the American team simply lacks the dynamic offensive ability showcased by the other three teams in the North American pool. Yes, that includes Slovakia too. Part of the problem is that players like Chris Drury and Brett Hull have been absolutely invisible so far. But in terms of shear scoring depth, Team USA lacks lethal goal scoring talent. Players like Steve Konowalchuk, Jeff Halpern, Jason Blake, and Craig Conroy are gritty and work hard on the ice. But the American team doesn’t have a wealth of players that routinely notch forty goals a season in the NHL. Canada, Sweden and Russia are loaded with those players. Bill Guerin, Hull and Tkachuk are the extent of Team USA’s scoring punch. Doug Weight and Mike Modano are their set-up men, but it’s really those three that have to score the big goals when the chips are down. Their inability to score is especially reflected in the horrible performance so far of both power play units.
The performance against Russia on Thursday was very disappointing. The Russians used their speed and skill to put the Americans on their heels. It was the first time in international tournament play in which a Russian team has defeated an American team in the United States. Midway through the second it looked as if Team USA was going to make a game of it. But Kovalev’s unbelievable roof shot from the end line sucked the life out of the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul.
Through the first two preliminary games the Americans were out shot 35-10 in the first period of play. Coach Ron Wilson and his staff have their work cut out for them in the elimination round. Team USA cannot afford to play from behind the rest of the way. The name of the game is jump, and the Americans haven’t shown any so far. Sure they were a bit better against Slovakia on Thursday. But after they scored early on the power play the U.S. lulled back into their slow sleepy style of play and ended up in a nail-biter.
With jump comes speed and I’m not sure any of the team’s aging bodies have any. Chris Chelios and Brian Leetch were non-factors against the speed of their preliminary round opponents. Maxim Afinigenov brutalized Team USA’s sluggish defense on Wednesday night. I’m beginning to wonder if the only speed the American team will show during the course of the tournament is the quickness they display when they pack their bags to head home after an early exit in the quarterfinals.
Oh, Canada
These guys are really, really good. Canada took some time to gel in the Olympics but this team looked ready to take this tournament over from the opening seconds of their opening game against Team USA. Brodeur is, well, he’s Brodeur and he’s playing at tip-top form. Mario Lemieux is so ready to go that he nearly dropped the gloves with Steve Konowalchuk and took a rare roughing penalty. Martin St. Louis, Joe Sakic, and Ryan Smyth are scoring. But guys like Brad Richards, Simon Gagne and Joe Thornton are playing a huge role.
But there are some cracks beginning to form in the amour. Remember that Team Canada was missing their top two defensemen in Chris Pronger and Rob Blake going into the tournament. Ed Jovonovki was lost for the tournament in the opening game with the Americans. Now Wade Redden, who QBs the second power play unit, is uncertain with an injury to his arm. Redden was seen with his injured arm in a sling Wednesday and missed Canada’s game against Russia. If Redden misses any more time the Canadians will be down to only six defensemen for the elimination rounds. Three of those six are somewhat inexperienced, albeit talented. Jay Bouwmeester and Scott Hannan, who were healthy scratches in the first game, and Robyn Regher have some big skates to fill.
For the American team there is encouragement to be gained from they way their turned up the desperation against the Canadian squad on Tuesday. Canada roared ahead to a two-goal lead but Robert Esche was awesome. If Team USA can find a way to victimize Canada’s thin defensive corps and solve Brodeur they may have an outside shot at the upset. But it is an outside shot and the Americans may not even get that shot unless they turn things around against Russia in the quarterfinals.
The European Pool
Finland clinched the top spot but not without encountering a few bumps in the road. In their games against the Czechs and Germans the Finns were literally unstoppable. Mikka Kirpusoff shut out both clubs, which is why Finland clinched the top spot despite their tie with Sweden on Saturday.
Despite storming ahead with a 2-goal lead in the first against Sweden, Finland let their guard down a bit on Saturday in Helsinki. The good news for the Finns is that they’ll get a lifeless Germany squad in the quarterfinals, which should be a walk, and they’ll face Sweden in the semifinals on home-ice. Two factors give Finland an edge in the re-match. First, Kiprusoff is a better goaltender than either Salo or Tellqvist. Tellqvist will probably get the start in the semifinal. Second, as I said before, Finland is built like a playoff team. This contrasts with Sweden’s all-star look. Sweden has more talent to be sure. But in their preliminary match Finland got goals from the likes of Ossi Vaananen and Ville Peltonen. Who? Exactly.
Finland has un-heralded workhorses that can be counted on to score in tight games. They have gritty fighters and gifted scorers. And each of their skaters plays a role. Sweden can score on anyone. But I think Finland has a better team while Sweden has better players. I’ll take the team over the players.
In a strange development Janne Niinimaa abruptly left team Finland. Apparently he can’t seem to get along with the coach. While a somewhat disturbing development, the Finns can persevere without him. Their quarterfinal match against Germany was a little too close for comfort.
The Czechs were a real disappointment in the prelims and they’re likely to get stomped by Sweden in the quarterfinals. It is tough to say what’s wrong with the Czech team but Jaromir Jagr might be a start. The knock on Jagr has always been his on-ice work ethic. The Czechs played the preliminary round like a team full of Jagr’s. Tomas Vokoun played well enough but he’s got to be frustrated with the lack of goal support. No way they beat Sweden on Tuesday.
Based on the preliminary round the only revision to my predictions I’m willing to make is Finland beating Sweden for a trip to the finals.
I talked a lot about Fredrik Modin during the Stanley Cup playoffs. Modin is a guy that many fans are unfamiliar with. Even in the midst of Tampa Bay’s run to glory last spring, Martin St. Louis, Brad Richards and Vincent Lecavalier got the bulk of the headlines. But Modin is a dynamic top-line forward. With Sweden, Modin lead all skaters in scoring through the preliminary round. Modin notched 4 goals and 3 assists in 3 games. Playing on a team with Peter Forsberg, Daniel Alfredsson, Markus Naslund and Mats Sundin, Fredrik Modin has been the best offensive player. That’s impressive.
The Quarterfinals
The European pool presents few surprises as Finland and Sweden should cruise through the quarterfinals into a semifinal showdown. But the North American pool is scattered with landmines. Team USA’s game against Russia should be one for the ages. Despite being the third seed, the Americans get de facto home ice with the game in St. Paul. Surely Ron Wilson and his staff will push the right buttons on Tuesday. The only question in the other quarterfinal is by how much the Canadians beat the Slovaks. Even if Team USA gets past Russia they’ll have to go to Toronto to face Canada in the semifinal. The Americans have lost two straight to Canada in international tournament play (excluding juniors) and they’ll need a miracle-like effort to prevail in Toronto.
Canada and Finland have demonstrated themselves as the class of the tournament so far. Their high seeding affords them easy quarterfinal matches. They also enjoy home-ice. Perhaps most importantly they have the best teams rather than just the best players.
In other news…
The NHLPA and the league got together for meetings in Montreal over the course of last week and by all accounts little additional progress was made. Bill Daly, who serves as the league’s chief legal officer, explained that the league has put forward six proposals since last spring. Not all of which included a salary cap. The problem is that the players are digging their heels in against any change that moves away from the status quo, not just a salary cap. The players like a world where they pocket nearly seventy-five percent of the revenue.
The other problem is that the players don’t believe the owners on the numbers. The owners are claiming record losses in revenue. The players aren’t buying it. Now there’s something to be said for holding out as long as possible in order to enhance your negotiating position. The problem is that the players don’t have much to lose at this point. With guys signing contingency contracts to play overseas in the event of a lockout very few players stand to go hungry. They won’t make as much money as they could in the NHL, but few players risk missing a house payment. If that’s the case the players have an incentive to holdout and hijack any kind of contract cost-certainty.
Barry Melrose, ESPN’s talking head, keeps asserting that the players have yet to put forward a proposal of their own. That’s misleading. They have shown some willingness on a luxury tax. The problem is that their luxury tax number is somewhere near $60 million. There are fewer than ten teams that regularly spend more than that on payroll. The league wants something closer to $40 million. But it looks as if the most progress is being made on a luxury tax, rather than a salary cap.
The time frame is shrinking rapidly. A deal needs to be in place by the end of the World Cup to prevent a disruption of the regular season. Teams are set to open training camps very soon, some as early as next week. Even if a deal were to be struck sometime later this month there is very little chance that the season would start on time.
You can’t help but hope that the good will of the World Cup will bring the two sides closer together in the closing minutes.
Eric Slusher resides in Spokane, WA and covers the NHL for SportsFiends.com through his weekly Wednesday Morning Skate column and other hockey related articles. Readers can contribute to the Wednesday Morning Skate or send comments to Eric by emailing him at eslusher@sportsfiends.com.
