After 49 days of playoff action the Stanley Cup finals get underway Tuesday night at the St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa Bay. The surprising Calgary Flames, the sixth seed out of the West, will face the East’s top team in the Tampa Bay Lightning.

This year’s Final represents a changing of the guard in the NHL. By my count, there are only 10 players who will lace up their skates in this series that have ever even played in a Stanley Cup finals game. For emerging stars like Lecavalier, Iginla, St. Louis and Regehr this is their time to shine. Guys like Sakic, Yzerman, Modano and Forsberg have held the limelight for long enough.

I know I jumped headfirst onto the San Jose bandwagon a couple of weeks ago. Big mistake. But I will point out that in the Wednesday Morning Skate on March 10th, the day after the trade deadline, I said that Tampa Bay would win the Stanley Cup. Of course, I didn’t even pick Calgary to make it past the opening round.

Before moving on to the Stanley Cup Final I’d like to share some closing thoughts on the Conference finals.

In the West, it was pretty clear to me that if San Jose didn’t give up in game 5, they certainly did when Martin Gelinas struck to make the score 2-0 in the second period of game 6. In the final two games of the series, the Sharks’ players looked like they were out of gas. Scott Hannan and Alex Korolyuk were the only two players that even looked like they were trying.

San Jose was horrible defensively as they tried to mount a comeback in the third. They seemed totally shell-shocked by Calgary’s two-deep fore check and neutral zone defense. They had zero puck support on dump-ins and got out-hustled to loose pucks. They iced the puck four times in the game’s final seven minutes and barely even sniffed at a decent scoring chance.

I’m willing to chalk some of the dismal effort in game 6 up to the combination of altitude and normal fatigue that comes with playing 17 playoff games. But then again, I was surprised with how well the Sharks’ players took the loss. It was almost as if they felt they had exceeded their own expectations in advancing to the Conference finals. Or maybe they simply knew they had lost the series in game 5.

It what should go down as one of the more bonehead coaching moves of the playoffs, Ron Wilson made Nik Dimitrakos a healthy scratch for the second time in the series in favor of German rookie Marcel Goc. Goc played well when he got his chance earlier in the playoffs. But this wasn’t a strategic move at all. While San Jose had been undefeated with Goc in the lineup, there was no time for superstition at this point in the series. Goc lost a key face-off, fell way out of position defensively leading straightaway to the aforementioned game-winning goal by Gelinas. Throughout the playoffs Nik Dimitrakos had given some jump to the Damphousse-Marleau line. When San Jose needed goals from their top two offensive players they were left wanting. Dimitrakos needed to be in the lineup for game 6. He finished fourth on the team in playoff points. Goc was an energy player. But he’s not experienced enough to be put in a position to win a face-off on a set play against Craig Conroy’s line.

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Flyers coach Ken Hitchcock was asked last year, following his teams’ elimination in the second round, if the team needed to get younger and faster. He said then that the Flyers would wait to see who won the Conference Final to make that determination. The 2003 Eastern Conference Final pitted the young and speedy Ottawa Senators against the aging and tough New Jersey Devils. Age, experience and toughness won that series. So the Flyers decided to keep their aging, experienced and tough lineup together for this season. The problem with their thinking is that the Flyers have been eliminated each of the last three years by teams that are younger and quicker.

I said before the series that I liked Tampa to prevail because they had such tremendous speed and skill. In many ways the Lightning resemble the Ottawa Senators, who eliminated the Flyers in both the 2002 and 2003 playoffs. The Flyers built their team to defeat the New Jersey Devils. They did beat the Devils in the first round. Then they beat another aging, tough group in the Toronto Maple Leafs in the second round. But when they ran into speed and skill they were, once again, D.O.A.. There won’t be as much finger-pointing this time around. For the first time in a long time the Flyers got excellent goaltending in the playoffs. But this team won’t cross the finish line until they add some speed and youth. John LeClair, Tony Amonte, Alex Zhamnov and maybe even Jeremy Roenick could be looking for new teams this off-season.

The story of the 2004 Stanley Cup finals is skill versus will. Tampa Bay brings an enormous amount of skill, speed and skating ability to bear on their opponents. But Calgary has already faced teams like this en route to the championship series. Calgary has will, determination and toughness on their side. The task for the Lightning is to match the effort they displayed in game 7 against the Flyers. In many ways the Flames may be the toughest opponent they’ll face this playoff season. Tampa Bay has only had to pass one tough test on the road to the championship round, game 7 against Philly. Calgary has faced adversity every step of the way.

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But Calgary needs to get healthy. Steve Montador has filled in admirably on defense but you can bet that Daryl Sutter would love to get either Toni Lydman or Denis Gauthier back soon. Tampa Bay feasted on Philly’s depleted defense and they’ll try to do the same to Calgary.

At the same time, the Flames have spent the entire playoffs without center Steven Reinprecht. He has lots of experience playing in the Stanley Cup finals from his days in Colorado. Matthew Lombardi has only scored one goal in the playoffs so far, so the Flames could use some scoring depth down the middle.

Another area of concern is Calgary’s impotent power play. If Toni Lydman returns for the finals he’ll at least provide some boost in that area. He was second to only Jordan Leopold in the regular season in points on the power play.

Like the rest of the team, Goaltender Mikka Kiprusoff is playing better with each passing game. Games 5 and 6 against Detroit were Kipper’s turning point. He shut out Detroit in those two games and eventually went on a four game winning streak. In just his last eight games, Kiprusoff has a 1.43 GAA; three of his four total shutouts and six wins against two losses. You can really sense his confidence growing.

However, Nikolai Khabiboulin is currently playing beyond Kiprusoff’s record setting regular season statistics. Kiprusoff is a finalist for the Vezina because of his modern-era record single season GAA of 1.69. Khabiboulin enjoys a 1.65 GAA so far this playoff season. In the regular season Khabiboulin notched a 2.33 GAA, .910 save percentage along with only 3 shutouts. In the playoffs he’s dropped his GAA, his save percentage to .939 and has notched 4 shutouts.

Before the puck drops in game 1, Calgary will have enjoyed a 5-day layoff. Keeping in mind that coming off a long layoff has been a powerful indicator of game 1 success, I would expect the Flames to come out strong on Tuesday. Tampa Bay is coming off two emotionally and physically draining games against Philly. They’re primed for a letdown. However, if Tampa does lose tomorrow it is not the end of the world. If they end up winning, look out.

A breakdown of the teams heading into the series shows that Tampa Bay has a strong edge in both first period scoring and on special teams:

Goals By Period

Specialty Teams

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Tampa Bay has been scoring goals at a torrid pace over the last 10 games and they’ll need to keep their offensive output up over the course of this series. The biggest sparks in the Bolts’ offense have been Lecavalier and Richards. Lightning coach John Tortorella likes to mix up his top six forwards across three lines to pressure the opponent’s defense. In game 7 against Philly he elected to dress a seventh defenseman, which left him short a center for the fourth line. He was left to mix and match three lines plus two extra checking wingers. As a result, Philly’s least effective defensemen were caught in disadvantageous match ups at various points. Calgary has cobbled together a rag-tag defensive group because of injuries. Tampa has at least six dangerous scoring forwards that can be mixed amongst three lines.

Taking only the top six forwards for each team, Tampa has a clear edge in scoring. Calgary’s top two lines have combined for 31 goals and 68 points. Tampa’s top six forwards have combined for 39 goals and 84 points in three fewer games. The next two forwards for the Lightning would be two-way specialists Tim Taylor and Corey Stillman who have combined for 4 goals and 10 points. Only Eric Perrin and Martin Cibak, who are infrequent additions to the lineup as fourth line centers, have failed to score a goal in the playoffs.

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However, when it comes to offense from the defensemen, Calgary has an edge, although slight. Calgary’s defense has added 3 goals and 21 points. Tampa’s defensemen have only combined for 1 goal all playoffs long. Neither team can honestly expect to get much offensive production from their defense. But both teams have a solid first pair. Regehr and Leopold for the Flames and Sydor and Kubina for the Lightning are keys to their respective clubs. The team’s pair that fairs better will win the series. Sydor and Kubina will defend against Iginla’s line while Regehr and Leopold will go up against any combination of St. Louis, Lecavalier and Richards.

Here’s how the teams stack up in various categories:

Scoring Depth

Tampa goes eight forwards deep in this category with four players having scored 5 or more goals in the playoffs. Calgary only has three players with 5 or more goals and all three play on a single line. While Nilson, Donovan and Nieminen have provided timely goals they can’t be counted on to score on a consistent basis. Scoring depth and an edge in first period goals per game gives Tampa the ability to play the bulk of the series with a lead. Advantage: Tampa Bay

Offense

Tampa Bay’s skill and speed is well documented. But they get size and strength from players like Modin, Taylor, Andreychuk and Stillman. The ability for coach John Tortorella to match his strength forwards with his speedy forwards makes for three balanced scoring lines. Even if Calgary can shut down one or two of Tampa’s top skaters they still have to worry about the other lines. Advantage: Tampa Bay

Defense

Calgary has the better defensive corps from top to bottom. Even Steve Montador has played pretty well in place of Gauthier. If either Lydman or Gauthier return the Flames will have a decided advantage on defense. However, Tortorella has shown a willingness to dress seven defensemen. When he does that the team is in a very good position to withstand multiple overtimes. Kubina and Sydor have been very solid. They’ve shut down both Montreal and Philadelphia’s top offensive players so far. As it stands Tampa has a slight edge. But if Gauthier or Lydman is able to come back the defensive edge will tilt back in Calgary’s favor. Advantage: Push

Power Play

Is there any question? Six more power play goals in three fewer games. A ten percent advantage in efficiency rate. Tampa Bay is even on a 5-game power play goal-scoring streak. Daryl Sutter desperately wants to play this series at even strength. But with Ville Nieminen and Chris Simon playing he may not get his wish. Advantage: Tampa Bay

Penalty Killing

Tampa Bay is coming off a series in which they surrendered only one power play goal against one of the league’s best power play units in the Flyers. They’re also on a streak of 19 straight kills. Calgary has already gone six straight games without a power play goal once in these playoffs. Advantage: Tampa Bay

Goaltending

This one is close. While Mikka Kiprusoff is behind Nik Khabiboulin in overall statistics this playoff year, he’s been better lately. With each passing series Kipper has improved his goals against average. Leaving the Vancouver series his GAA stood at 2.08. After the Detroit series it had fallen to 1.92 and exiting the series with San Jose it fell to 1.90 Contrast that to Khabiboulin and the trend moves in the opposite direction. After the Bolts’ series with the Islanders Khabiboulin had a goals against average of 0.79. After their series with Montreal it climbed to 1.00. Now, following their series with Philadelphia it is up to 1.65. So, while Khabiboulin enjoys a better overall statistical outlay, Kiprusoff has been pushing the number of goals he allows per game down while Khabiboulin’s number has climbed. But, the Lightning goalie still allows fewer goals per game overall. And Tampa allows far fewer shots per game. Either goalie has the ability to steal a win for his team. But while Kipper has been consistently improving, Khabiboulin has been consistently good. Advantage: Tampa Bay

Coaching

John Tortorella is a brilliant tactician when it comes to strategically deploying his lines to maximize favorable match ups. This is an ability first evident in their series against Montreal. His line matching neutralized Montreal’s only effective scoring line and turned Vinnie Lecavalier and Brad Richards loose on the offensive end. Calgary is similar to Montreal in that you really only have to consistently defend against one dangerous scoring line. But Daryl Sutter has truly done a brilliant job preparing his team to play their best, game in and game out. It’s one thing to lead a team that finished second overall in the league standings to the Stanley Cup finals. But it is another altogether to lead a team to the finals that were facing the prospect of not even making the playoffs going into the trade deadline. Daryl Sutter lead his team through three Western division winners with a depleted lineup. Both Sutter and Tortorella are finalists for the Jack Adams award. But Sutter in particular must be doing something right for his club to be in this position. Advantage: Calgary

X-Factor

This category is reserved for the intangibles. The Flames have an unbelievable atmosphere in their building, widespread support across Canada, and a certain something that makes it hard to root against them. Usually a team’s determination is evident in the statistics. That’s certainly the case with the Flames. Calgary is 4-1 in overtime in these playoffs. They also have an amazing 80% win percentage in games decided by one goal. They’re 2-1 in elimination games and have won a game 7, on the road, in overtime. A player like Marty Gelinas is an “X-factor”. All three of his game-winning goals in the playoffs have been series clinchers. The whole team’s confidence is building with each passing game. If the Flames can maximize their “X-factors” they just might be able to overcome Tampa Bay’s edge in all the other categories. Advantage: Calgary

I like Calgary to eek out a close win in game 1 because they’re rested. They’ll bring a ton of physicality into the Forum on Tuesday night and I would expect to see lots of punishing hits, particularly in the first period. Tampa may be drained from their two previous games against the Flyers. But I like Tampa to win the series because of their scoring depth. Tampa Bay has a huge edge in speed, scoring and skating ability. They also have the better goaltender and top defensive pair. Tampa Bay in 7.