I am done betting against the Calgary Flames. Done! As the old saying goes, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than to be good. It could be argued that when it comes to talent the Flames pale in comparison to Vancouver, Detroit and San Jose. Quite frankly, they got lucky in game 1 when they beat the Sharks in overtime. Out shot 52-37, blowing leads of 2-0 and 3-2, the Flames were lucky to escape with the win. The problem with luck is that sometimes it runs out.
Of course, I don’t mean to short change the Flames. It’s also been said that luck is simply the point where preparation and opportunity meet. Maybe it was that extra day off between games that the Flames enjoyed. Maybe San Jose was a bit overconfident playing at home. Maybe the Flames are simply better than many, myself included, have given them credit for.
After a disastrous third period by San Jose in game 2, the Flames are now firmly in control. I hope you didn’t follow my advice to bet heavily on the Sharks.
Proving my theory about layoffs was the Lightning’s performance in game 1 of their series against the Flyers. Tampa was thoroughly outplayed in the first period but survived. Early in the second period they nabbed a goal and never trailed the rest of the way. Both Calgary and Tampa struggled a bit in the first games of their Conference Finals series. But they both won coming off longer layoffs. The key for the final four teams remaining is to move on to the Finals as quickly as possible. This layoff thing is becoming a very strong statistical indicator if you ask me.
The Eastern Conference Final
Like the Flames, Tampa Bay was very lucky to survive game 1 with a win. But this is nothing new for them. While they enjoyed a series sweep against Montreal, there were stretches in the series where the Habs looked like the better team. To Tampa’s credit, when you can go on a win streak that notches half of the wins required to claim the Stanley Cup you’re in good shape. After eight straight victories their luck finally ran out in game 2.
Nik Khabiboulin was on a record pace going into game 2, setting a modern era record for goals against and save percentage through the first ten games of the playoffs. A bad game along the way is to be expected. The key is to get it out of the way. I would expect Khabiboulin to return to form for game 3 on Thursday.
To this point Tampa hasn’t really been tested by a team with the strength and depth of the Flyers. Yet, dating back to the start of the season they have enjoyed a 5-1 record against Philly. The playoffs are certainly a different animal and the Bolts need to get their act together. They’d been breezing through inferior competition before this series. Any way you slice it, game 2 was nothing short of a debacle for the Bolts. Maybe it will be the wake-up call they needed.
Philadelphia proved against the Leafs that they won’t get pushed around. But one thing they lacked in game 1 against Tampa was a killer instinct. They had the Bolts on the ropes but Tampa Bay hit exceptionally well.. Game 2 was over so quickly that we never really saw the physical play Philly possesses on display.
Both teams have decent scoring depth but their top lines haven’t had much room so far. The Blackhawk Down line hasn’t been much of a force for about six games now. Martin St. Louis scored a meaningless power play goal in game 2, which was his first goal since the first round. This series could hinge on which team gets their top offensive players loose. The Roenick-Zhamnov-Amonte line for Philly and the St. Louis-Modin-Richards line for Tampa need to be the difference makers for their respective teams.
Speaking of difference makers, you can’t talk about the Flyers without mentioning the exceptional play of Sami Kapanen. Every team should be so lucky to have a player like Kapanen on their roster. He’s easily made the transition from forward to defense and is the most dangerous offensive defenseman in the playoffs. He took a punishing hit from Darcy Tucker in the final minutes of Philly’s series against Toronto and had trouble getting back on his feet. He is very likely suffering from a mild concussion but refuses to be tested. The league has rules barring players from returning to play if they test positive for a concussion. You could say that it is foolish to refuse the test and play with a possible concussion. But you at least have to admit that Sami Kapanen is one tough customer.
Kapanen got lose on a shorthanded 2-on-1 in game 2 and is a much greater scoring threat than most defensemen. Instead of passing or shooting a poor shot like most defensemen would, Kapanen roofed a wicked wrister over Khabiboulin to put the game away in the first period. Whenever Kapanen is on the ice it is like the Flyers have four scoring forwards. His ability to also play responsible defense makes him hockey’s ultimate utility player.
With the series headed back to Philly I think the Lightning need to establish a realistic goal of gaining a split and focus on game 5 at home. A game 3 win would be huge for the team’s confidence after the mess they made of game 2. However, it is going to be tough to rebound at the Wachovia Center. The Bolts need to play tight, defensive hockey and minimize mistakes. Their best scenario could simply be Khabiboulin stealing one of the next two on a road to regain home-ice.
The Western Conference Final
Luck had nothing to do with it in game 2. Calgary played a near perfect road period in the first. San Jose had played very strong in opening periods, particularly at home, in this playoff year. While San Jose brought some physicality to bear on Calgary in the second, the Flames were able to escape with a lead. That’s what a near perfect opening period can provide. Even going into the third, the Flames had to be thinking that win or lose they have definitely taken control of the series.
Two things are fairly clear so far. One, Sutter is a mighty effective coach against his former team. Second, the environs at the HP Pavilion don’t intimidate the Flames. Through two home games the Sharks have had to play from behind. That’s something they haven’t had to do very much this season. San Jose outplayed Calgary for probably four of the series’ first six-plus periods. But the Flames have still controlled the games. That’s a difficult phenomenon to put your finger on. But it’s true, plain and simple. Anytime you back a higher seed onto their heels while on the road you’ve got an excellent shot.
This doesn’t mean, however, that the Sharks are finished. The Flames are only playing .500 hockey at home in these playoffs. Their younger players lack major playoff experience and a let down is possible. Anytime a team charges out to a two game lead in a series there’s a chance that guys will loose focus just a bit. But Daryl Sutter is an outstanding coach and an exceptional motivator. He’ll have his guys ready. San Jose just has to match Calgary’s work ethic. In a weird way, a lot of the pressure is on the Flames. The Sharks have to use that fact in their favor.
Patrick Marleau has to anchor the offense as well. While he’s tied for the league lead in playoff goals with seven, six of those came in two games. San Jose also isn’t getting anything from their fourth line. Curtis Brown isn’t providing much in the way of scoring chances. Their most physical defenseman, Kyle McLaren, is out indefinitely with an undisclosed injury. Marco Sturm is still nowhere in sight as he recovers from a broken ankle. Somebody, anybody has to step into the void and spark this team’s confidence. Two candidates are Nick Dimitrakos and Alexander Korolyuk. They’ve been San Jose’s energy on the offensive end so far. Now they’ve got to finish some chances.
San Jose is the better team and they don’t have many glaring weaknesses. They’re just in shock. If they need to talk to someone about it they could call any member of the Vancouver Canucks or the Detroit Red Wings. At this point, it’s hard not to compare the Flames to the 2003 Anaheim Ducks or the 2002 Carolina Hurricanes.
You can’t understate what this means to the nation of Canada as well. Calgary represents the country’s best hope to bring the Cup back to the birthplace of hockey in a very long time.
U-S-A
USA Hockey won their first medal at the World Championships since 1996 with their Bronze medal game win in Prague last weekend over the Slovaks. Team USA’s hero was Andy Roach, who has never played a single game in the NHL. The 30 year-old Roach has played in the German Elite League since 1999, playing with Manheim for the last four seasons. Seeded eighth in quarterfinal play, the Americans faced the heavily favored hosts. The Czech team was undefeated in the tournament entering the quarterfinal game. Team USA battled back from down 2-0 to force overtime. After the scoreless OT, the game went into a penalty shot shootout session to break the tie. The only goal scored in the shootout came from defenseman Andy Roach. Coach Peter Laviolette heard a rumor that Roach had a sure-bet deke move honed in Germany where games are commonly decided in shootouts.
After losing to a tough Swedish team, featuring new arrival Peter Forsberg, 3-2 in the semifinals the Americans needed to beat the Slovaks in order to secure a medal. Edmonton goalie Ty Conklin, who earned the right to play for the bronze by virtue of an unbeaten tournament record, shut out the Slovaks over the course of regulation and the overtime. In the penalty shot session it was again Roach who was asked to provide the heroics. He didn’t disappoint.
The Bronze is no small achievement for an undermanned and outgunned American squad. Team USA notched shocking wins over Russia, the Czechs and the Slovaks. Going into the tournament, the United States wasn’t even guaranteed a spot in the 2006 Winter Olympics. With their impressive performance USA Hockey moved up to sixth in the world rankings. The American national team has always lacked depth, often relying on citizens playing in foreign leagues or recent college hockey grads. The NHL playoffs uniquely disadvantage the US because it dilutes the pool of available players. Additionally, Swedish, Czech and Canadian players are more inclined to accept the call of their country and play in the world tournament for no pay. American stars like Mike Modano, Brett Hull, Keith Tkachuk and Chris Chelios could have provided a strong edge to Team USA. They all decided to skip the tournament.
Luckily, Team USA had a guy named Andy Roach. You may have never heard of him but apparently he is wicked in penalty shot shootouts. If the NHL ever adopts shootout tiebreaker, he might actually get a shot in the bigs.
In other news…
Hats off to Ottawa Senators owner Eugene Melnyk who, along with his wife Laura, owns a couple of thoroughbreds that have enjoyed some success at the track recently. On Derby Day at Churchill Downs, his horse Speightstown scored a $200,000 stakes win in the 4th race over the likes of Congaree. Then, on May 9th at Calder, his filly Shorey Village broke her maiden over the turf and paid $13.20. Forbes lists the Biovail Pharmaceutical czar as one of the world’s richest people, with a net worth over a billion dollars. Maybe he can sign some tough hockey players with all those purses.
Steve Simmons, who covers the Leafs for the Toronto Sun, is up to his old tricks again. Simmons is known for spreading questionable rumors. This time he is saying that Gary Roberts is unhappy with GM John Ferguson Jr.’s decision to retain head coach Pat Quinn. Apparently Roberts is unlikely to re-sign with the Leafs now that Quinn is assured of being with the team for the near future. While it’s possible Roberts could move on, it’s hard to imagine any other player that better epitomizes Toronto Maple Leaf’s hockey. You can bet that Eugene Melnyk would make a run on Roberts if indeed he ends up loose on the free market. So would Detroit for that matter. Just don’t count on Roberts actually being let-go. His agent denied the Simmons rumor on Monday.
Speaking of the Leafs and Sens, it looks like Toronto assistant Keith Action is number one on Ottawa GM John Muckler’s head coach wish list. He’s likely to winnow his list down in the next month to make a proposal to the owner ahead of the draft.
The list of team’s looking for head coaches officially stands at five: Phoenix, Florida, Columbus, Ottawa and the Rangers. Detroit could be the next to join the list, as Dave Lewis is likely to get the axe. Paul Maurice, Jacques Martin and Joel Quenneville are the top candidates for all the available jobs. Other guys likely to get consideration include Lightning assistant Craig Ramsay, Detroit assistant Barry Smith, Robbie Ftorek, Red Deer’s Brent Sutter and Kelowna Rocket’s coach Marc Habscheid.
Let me get this straight; Mike Danton hires a hit man to kill a “Canadian” staying in his apartment while he’s away in San Jose. When the police arrive his Canadian agent Dave Frost is the only guy staying in the apartment. The federal prosecutor has taped telephone conversations that indicate Frost was Danton’s target. But Frost wants us to believe that Danton was delusional from painkillers and only thought someone was coming down from Canada to kill him. Right. I can understand Frost wanting to protect his own less than admirable reputation. (Being the target of a murder-for-hire plot can really deflate your ego.) I can also understand Frost wanting to protect Danton. It would be really hard to prosecute someone for murder if the target was a figment of the defendant’s imagination. But I’m guessing the “phantom target” defense is going to go down in flames.
Eric Slusher resides in Spokane, WA and covers the NHL for SportsFiends.com through his weekly Wednesday Morning Skate column and other hockey related articles. Readers can contribute to the Wednesday Morning Skate or send comments to Eric by emailing him at eslusher@sportsfiends.com.
