The Bears don’t play their first regular season game until September 12th (a great day in history which has seen the birth of both Jesse Owens and the author of this column), but it’s not too early to take a brief look at their 2004 opponents. The schedule is by no means easy, and a 9-7 or 10-6 finish would make Lovie Smith a candidate for Coach of the Year. Even if the Bears struggle out of the gate, they have a chance to put together a winning streak over the last five weeks. Considering that the upcoming season will be a rebuilding year, it will be important for the team to gain some momentum heading into the offseason.

Week 1: Detroit
Date: September 12, 2004

In the Bears’ first home opener in five years, Dick Jauron will make his return to Chicago (as Detroit’s Defensive Coordinator). The Lions improved their roster through the draft and in free agency, but the Bears should be fired up for Lovie Smith’s first game. Detroit’s Joey Harrington will be the first opposing QB to face the Bears’ new attacking defense, and he’s prone to mistakes when pressured.

Prediction: Bears win. Record: 1-0.

Week 2: @ Green Bay
Date: September 19, 2004

Lovie Smith gets an early chance to walk-the-walk and beat the Packers in only his second game, but he’ll soon find that a win at Lambeau Field is easier said than done. The Bears have only won two of their last twenty games against Green Bay. This matchup will prove too difficult so early in the season, as Brett Favre should once again triumph over the Bears.

Prediction: Bears Lose. Record: 1-1.

Week 3: @ Minnesota
Date: September 26, 2004

This will be a pressure game because the Bears have Philadelphia waiting on the horizon. In the offseason, the Vikings brought in CB Antoine Winfield via free agency to sure up their secondary and signed former Bear Marcus Robinson to start at WR opposite Randy Moss. If this game was played later in the year, the Bears would be better prepared. But their youth and inexperience will cost them.

Prediction: Bears Lose. Record: 1-2.

Week 4: Philadelphia
Date: October 3, 2004

The Bears’ difficult early season schedule continues with the 2003 runner up in the NFC. The Eagles addressed their biggest needs in free agency (a pass rush specialist and a solid #1 receiver) with the signings of Jevon Kearse and Terrell Owens. Philly is poised to make yet another Super Bowl run in 2004, and the Bears won’t be in a position to offer much resistance.

Prediction: Bears Lose. Record: 1-3.

Week 5: -- BYE --
Date: October 10, 2004

If the Bears are only 1-3 after the first four weeks of the year, this early season bye will be important. The team will be learning new systems on both sides of the ball, and some initial struggles can be expected. Such a poor record won’t be an indictment of the new coaching staff or the players, but the Bears will have to pick it up in order to climb back into the NFC playoff race.

Week 6: Washington
Date: October 17, 2004

The Redskins are a better team on paper after signing nearly every free agent in the league, but for the Bears this is a winnable game. With the bye week to plan ahead for Mark Brunell, Clinton Portis, and the rest of Washington’s offense, the Bears’ defense should be in a position to succeed. Rex Grossman should be able to put points on the board against a vastly overrated Redskins’ defense. Keep in mind that both Philip Daniels and Greg Blache are now in Washington.

Prediction: Bears win. Record: 2-3.

Week 7: @ Tampa Bay
Date: October 24, 2004

Tampa Bay’s mystique faded considerably last year (especially defensively), as several teams moved the ball consistently against the Bucs. Head Coach John Gruden lost his starting tailback, Thomas Jones, to the Bears and will have to address the departure of SS John Lynch and DT Warren Sapp in free agency. Still, the Bucs are a veteran team, and this is the type of road game that the inexperienced Bears may give away.

Prediction: Bears lose. Record: 2-4.

Week 8: San Francisco
Date: October 31, 2004

On paper, this is the easiest game on the schedule. The 49ers are in full-blown rebuilding mode and shouldn’t be competitive against the Bears at Soldier Field. This matchup comes at the perfect time for a young team like Chicago that will be developing as the season progresses. If the Bears can’t win this one, it will be clear that they are developing slower than expected.

Prediction: Bears win. Record: 3-4.

Week 9: @ New York Giants
Date: November 7, 2004

Lovie Smith’s turnover-first defensive philosophy should pay dividends in this game. The Giants have solid veterans at most positions on offense, but QB Kurt Warner and RB Tiki Barber give the ball up consistently. The Bears also wouldn’t mind a shot at Eli Manning, who figures to be turnover-prone so early in his rookie season. While this matchup will be a tough test for the Bears, a road win here will be important with games against Tennessee, Indianapolis, and Dallas over the next three weeks.

Prediction: Bears win. Record: 4-4.

Week 10: @ Tennessee
Date: November 14, 2004

Despite injuries and aging stars on both sides of the ball, the Titans will once again be in the race for the AFC playoffs. Veteran RB Eddie George moved on to Dallas, and the Tennessee offense is now built around Steve McNair and the passing game. This will be a turning point in the season for the Bears, who will either win their third straight and move above .500 or drop their first of what could be three consecutive losses.

Prediction: Bears lose. Record: 4-5.

Week 11: Indianapolis
Date: November 21, 2004

This game would be closer if the Bears could play it in December weather, but Indy’s high-powered offense should have no problems at Soldier Field in November. The Colts are a Super Bowl contender and will be out of the Bears league in 2004. Don’t be surprised, however, if the Bears are a better team by this point in the season. They might even keep this one close, which would be a victory in itself.

Prediction: Bears lose. Record: 4-6.

Week 12: @ Dallas
Date: November 25, 2004 (Thanksgiving Day)

Lovie Smith is a native Texan, and his return to Dallas will be nationally televised. Because of the media attention that will surround this game, the Bears will have the chance to prove that they belong in the upper echelon of the NFC. Unfortunately, beating the Cowboys at home will be a tall order, and the Bears will probably come up short.

Prediction: Bears lose. Record: 4-7.

Week 13: Minnesota
Date: December 5, 2004

A Bears’ loss to Dallas in Week 12 would definitely mark the low point of the season, but the team should be able to rally in Week 13 against division rival Minnesota. The Vikings famously fade down the stretch under Mike Tice, and the Bears should be putting all the pieces together as the season reaches its end. It will be interesting to see if Randy Moss can score on Charles Tillman in this one.

Prediction: Bears win. Record: 5-7.

Week 14: @ Jacksonville
Date: December 12, 2004

The Bears should still be in the playoff hunt at this point in the year, but it’s unlikely that they will win their final five games. The team will slip up eventually, and Jacksonville is no pushover. QB Byron Leftwich showed his vast potential in 2003, and Head Coach Jack Del Rio will have his team playing well.

Prediction: Bears lose. Record: 5-8.

Week 15: Houston
Date: December 19, 2004

A late season loss to Jacksonville in Week 14 will likely put the Bears out of the playoff race. But Lovie Smith will rally his troops for the final three weeks in order to create momentum for the 2005 season. The Bears will start their solid finish with a home victory over the Texans. Houston will probably be hovering around .500, similar to the Bears, in a game that features two young, developing franchises.

Prediction: Bears win. Record: 6-8.

Week 16: @ Detroit
Date: December 26, 2004

Both the Bears and Lions will be much better teams this late in the season, and Chicago will have a fight on their hands in Detroit. But, despite their mediocre record, the Bears will still be playing hard. Winning the last two games is important for a young team, and Lovie Smith will pull this one out to complete the season sweep of Detroit.

Prediction: Bears win. Record: 7-8.

Week 17: Green Bay
Date: January 2, 2004

The Packers will need this game either to make the playoffs or improve their seeding, but the Bears will be happy to play spoiler. This is Chicago’s Super Bowl: a chance to hurt the Packers and end the season with a victory. If the Bears have made any progress, it should definitely show in this game. The weather should be cold, the crowd should be vocal, and the Bears should rise to the occasion.

Prediction: Bears win. Final Record: 8-8.

In the above prediction, the Bears are 6-2 at home and 2-6 on the road, which is exactly how you would expect a young team to perform. Overall, an 8-8 finish would be a successful season for the new coaching staff. Unfortunately, a .500 record may be the optimistic view of the 2004 season, as the team could very easily finish much worse given their schedule. But this coming year is not about winning games (as much as the Bears will say that they’re looking to win every week). The young players need game experience to be successful in 2005 and beyond, despite that fact that too much youth usually loses football games. If Grossman solidifies his hold on the QB spot and the defense grows into Lovie Smith’s scheme, 2004 will be a resounding success.