It’s Championship Weekend for college football, and one last chance for BCS mayhem. Should LSU and Southern Cal both take care of business Saturday, we’ll have the now-standard “one team gets left out” subplot. There’s nothing new or interesting about that, and most college football fans have accepted it as a fact of the system.
However, should the Tigers and the Trojans both stumble this weekend there would be nine – that’s right nine – major conference teams with identical 10-2 records. Of that group, several could make strong cases that they deserve a spot in the Sugar Bowl. LSU and USC would say they’re still the best of the bunch. Michigan could argue it’s played better than anyone in the country – save the Sooners – over the last two months, and Georgia could point to an SEC title game victory over LSU. Even Texas could make a (shaky) case that is deserves another shot at Oklahoma.
The BCS computers would still sort out who earns the right to be throttled by Oklahoma, but the fans still get weeks of outrage, debates and (most importantly) heated calls for BCS reform. Even the mid-majors could get in on the action since TCU and Boise State – and possibly Miami, Ohio – would have superior marks to the big boys with only one loss.
Think defense doesn’t matter? All four of the teams involved in conference championship games this weekend are ranked in the top five in total defense. Oklahoma is No. 1, LSU and Georgia are second and fourth, respectively, and Kansas State is fifth.
Think defense is all that matters? Auburn, at 7-5, and 6-6 San Diego State are also ranked in the top ten, while 4-8 BYU is 13th. Even UCLA, which has surrendered a ton of points, ranks in the top 25.
THE BREAKDOWN
Only two games this week, since Miami, Ohio should handle Bowling Green, Navy will obliterate Army, and USC (unfortunately) will crush Oregon State:
No. 3 LSU vs. No. 5 Georgia: To read most assessments of this week’s action, you’d think the Tigers were a mortal lock to sew up a BCS spot. At the risk of partisanship, that’s just not so. True, LSU dropped the Bulldogs 17-10 in Baton Rouge earlier this season, but most seem to forget a few important facts. Georgia missed three field goals, all-makeable. The Bulldogs played without deep threat receiver Fred Gibson and starting tight end Ben Watson. Georgia’s young and rag-tag offensive line saw steady blitzes for the first time all season.
All of that and still only a seven-point game. Georgia’s last three contests haven’t been close and Saturday’s tilt will be played less than 60 miles from Athens in Atlanta.
The Tigers are also playing great football. They’ve discovered a running game that was largely absent earlier this season, and the defense continues to dominate – particularly the front four. Georgia, for its part, is on the verge of having no running back gain 100 yards in a game this season. It would be the first time that happened since 1972, and it’s unlikely to change against LSU.
Georgia’s offense has been shaky this season, but never more so than against the Tigers. LSU hit on a way to disrupt quarterback David Greene, playing man coverage with heavy blitz pressure. Greene had a poor day, throwing two interceptions and spending ample time on his back.
It will be more of the same this time around with Georgia hoping that Gibson provides enough deep speed to force the Tigers out of blitz packages and into zone coverages. But, the Bulldogs need to run the football to win. Going one-dimensional against the Tigers won’t work and risks exposing the Georgia defense by keeping them on the field.
Offensively, LSU’s new running game could pose problems for Georgia, which didn’t look great against a mediocre Georgia Tech rushing attack.
This will be closer than most think, but LSU is just too hot.
No. 13 Kansas State vs. No. 1 Oklahoma: Oklahoma can lose and still make the Sugar Bowl, but don’t expect the Sooners to take a week off. It will take an OU bus accident for Kansas State to win. The Sooners’ defense is that dominating. The Wildcats struggled against the same Texas team that was blasted by Oklahoma.
K-State quarterback Ell Roberson and running back Darren Sproles are dangerous, but the Wildcats are inconsistent at wide receiver and sometimes suspect in pass protection. Even in the best case, Bill Snyder’s bunch has to throw the ball to win.
The Wildcats have a great chance to shut down the Sooners’ running attack, but forcing OU to throw the ball is a mixed blessing. Moreover, any turnovers that kill scoring drives can erase any hope of staying in the game. It’s just not an enviable position.
OU quarterback Jason White is not the best player – or, probably, even the best quarterback – in the country, but he’s pretty damn good, and he’ll win the Heisman Trophy. He’ll have field position to work with, and there will be opportunities to throw the ball downfield. He’s mastered spreading the ball around, he’s got a host of underrated receivers, and the offensive line makes it look easy.
The story, though, will be defense. The Sooners have an amazing front seven, and it’s impossible to stretch the defense either to the sideline or down the field. They’ll stack the line of scrimmage and dare the Wildcats to go down the field. Texas phenom Vince Young gave OU trouble as a scrambling quarterback, and Roberson could do the same, but not often enough to keep his team in the game.
The oddsmakers list Oklahoma as 14-point favorites. That’s a steal. Bob Stoops’ teams rarely slump.
