Now that the college football season is heading into its stretch run, can we finally start talking honestly about Jim Tressel’s obvious deal with the Devil? Really, there can be no other explanation for this team’s run of good luck dating back nearly two years. One season of inexplicable success can be deemed a Cinderella story, but almost 25 games of last second wins, defensive touchdowns and opponent meltdowns must have its locus somewhere else.
Thus, I submit Satan.
Need a break against a massively favored Miami team in the national championship game? No problem. Willis McGahee goes down with one of the more horrible postseason injuries ever. Thank you, Prince of Darkness. Need help in overtime? Here’s a phantom pass interference penalty to change the game.
Things continued apace this season. The Buckeyes picked off a San Diego State pass as the Aztecs were heading in for a 14-0 lead, and Ohio State barely held on for a 16-13 win at home. A week later it took what can only be described as some sort of aneurysm from the N.C. State offensive coordinator to eke out a 44-38 overtime win, again at home. A charmed life, some would say. After a loss to Wisconsin (even God took a day off), Ohio State got more help in wins over Purdue and woeful Penn State.
To be serious, the Buckeyes have an outstanding run defense – which is usually enough in the Big Ten – but lack any real offensive weapons. And, they haven’t had to play from far behind in two years. Moreover, there are questions about how well the linebackers operate in coverage if an opponent stretches the field, and the secondary has given up some big plays in man coverage, including the 80-yard, game-winning strike against the Badgers.
Maybe not the work of Beelzebub, but the Buckeyes have been too fortunate for their luck to continue. Another appearance in the national title game would simply underscore the tragedy that is the BCS.
While bashing the BCS, has anyone taken a close look at the New York Times’ BCS Computer Ranking? Perhaps it is required that the nation’s most respected newspaper (though its sports coverage is sub par) be represented on the BCS computer committee, but the NYTs rankings are so bizarre that you wonder if the people behind them actually watch college football. Two-loss Texas and three-loss Florida are ranked 3rd and 4th in the poll, ahead of once-beaten LSU. Tennessee checks in at No. 6, four places ahead of Georgia, a team it lost to by nearly 40 points, and Georgia is ranked ahead of the Tigers despite losing to them 17-10. Undefeated TCU (though probably overrated in most polls) is still a dismal 25th. Sure, the other computer rankings have their own glitches – Jeff Sagarin ranks Miami, Ohio at No. 4 – but the NYT computer is the only one that hammers both national powerhouses and midmajors. Boise State, Miami (OH), Utah, Bowling Green and TCU all have their poll averages tanked by this system. Is the first criteria electoral votes? One plausible answer seems to be an over reliance on strength of schedule (which explains why Texas, Florida and Tennessee are so high, while the midmajors so low). SOS is a critical feature of the BCS system, but it’s also an independent variable apart from the computers. Computer rankings that rely heavily on SOS only skew the rankings. In effect, it punishes teams with weak schedules twice: once in the rankings and again when SOS is added in.
Looking for a way to boost small school stake in the system without a major overhaul? Only factor in schedule strength once.
THE BREAKDOWN
No. 4 Ohio State at No. 5 Michigan: It’s the Big Game, and from a southerner’s perspective, the only Big Ten tilt that’s always worth watching. For this year’s installment there’s more on the line than the usual conference pride. Both teams are ranked in the top five in both polls, both are in the top 10 of the BCS, and the winner takes home the Big Ten title. These teams could not be more different. Michigan had led a Jekyll-Hyde existence, blowing up huge point totals one instance and collapsing in a heap the next. Ohio State has been – to be kind – workmanlike, squeaking out wins against teams both good and bad.
Chris Perry is the best back the Buckeyes will see this year, and Michigan’s offensive line is the best this side of Madison. John Navarre and the Wolverine passing game have loaded up on iron pills to overcome their early season anemia, and have looked great since the fourth quarter of the Minnesota game. Surprisingly, it’s the Michigan defense, much maligned in September as too slow to the ball, that has come on.
This game is always closer than it should be, Saturday being no exception. The big risk for the Wolverines is turnovers. Perry had trouble holding onto the rock this season, especially during the debacle in Eugene. An opportunistic defense is all that kept Ohio State in last week’s game, and it’s been a factor all season. Control the ball, control the clock, score an early touchdown and the Buckeye are in trouble. Regardless, you can’t buck Michigan in the Big House. Take the Maize and Blue.
No. 3 LSU at No. 15 Mississippi: This one doesn’t quite decide the SEC West, but it makes things a lot clearer. Both teams have another conference game next week, but Ole Miss gets cellar-dweller Mississippi State and its lame duck administration, while LSU gets comparatively more taxing Arkansas. The national media bills this as Eli Manning’s coming out party, and he’ll need to be outstanding for the Rebels to take a win – even in Oxford. Mississippi hasn’t shown much of a ground game, but Manning has been so good that they haven’t needed much. That changes against the Tigers who aren’t afraid to play man coverage and bring the house. The LSU defensive front is also strong enough to get pressure on the quarterback without a big blitz package; meaning Manning could see a host of different looks. The Tigers have surrendered the fewest touchdowns in the nation this season and rank fourth in total defense.
Lost in this is the LSU offense, which rebounded after early season struggles. The Rebels rank 14th nationally in total offense, but trail the Tigers in scoring average – which, let’s face it, is what matters. Coach Nick Saban uncovered a running game that no one – himself included – knew existed, and quarterback Matt Mauck has several weapons including Michael Clayton, who’s still looking for a monster game. Mississippi’s defense ranks a hapless 77th this season and struggled at times against Auburn’s toothless attack.
If Ole Miss wins it will be solely on the shoulders of Manning, but they won’t. LSU is too much with too much to play for. It’s the Tigers on the road.
UCLA at No. 2 USC: This year’s Cross-town Clash looked to be a more thrilling throwdown until the Bruins were dismantled by Stanford, Washington State and Oregon in succession, averaging fewer than 14 points per contest. They’ll need more than that against Norm Chow’s offense, and the USC defense (the only Pac-10 unit that doesn’t make football games look like Ivy League basketball contests) will present a mammoth challenge.
Still, it’s a rivalry game and UCLA is a program that’s improving. Bruins’ defensive lineman David Ball is a monster, but he’ll need to spend ample time in the Trojan backfield to make an impact. UCLA has made it plain that it struggles against the pass meaning Southern Cal will sling it from the outset.
Look at it this way: UCLA has a -2.2 scoring margin for the season. This is a team that failed to score a touchdown, at home, against ILLINOIS. They’ve only scored more than 30 points once this season and squeaked past rudderless Arizona 24-21. Need we go any further? Even at 22.5-point favorites, the Trojans look pretty good.
