After another bizarre week of college football, this much is clear: Oklahoma is head and shoulders above the rest of the crowd. The Sooners just keep burying opponents, demoralizing them on both sides of the ball, while the rest of the supposed “elite” teams stagger toward the finish line. At this rate, Oklahoma should be declared the champion while the next two teams play for second. Let’s face it: a game between Nos. 2 and 3 would be a hell of a lot more competitive.
This year it’s as if the usual midseason malaise that afflicts the Big Ten has gone airborne, infecting all of the other conferences. Teams show up one week and disappear the next. Home field advantage could mean everything or nothing. The only safe bet in the business lately is taking the “over” in Pac-10 contests.
There is a simple explanation for all of this. It’s the dreaded “P” word: parity. Parity is all well and good if all of the teams perform at a high level, but college football of late has been mired in mediocrity. Offensive flops (Ohio State, Georgia, Nebraska) are coupled with porous defenses (everyone in the aforementioned Pac-10, save Southern Cal), and a slew of teams have been undone by discipline breakdowns in dumb penalties and turnovers (Washington State, Miami, Florida State).
True, there have been some good games, but a host of supposed blockbusters have been busts. Oklahoma throttled Texas. Miami slaughtered Florida State. Georgia blistered Tennessee. Southern Cal smacked Notre Dame and Washington State.
What does this point to? For starters, it means the mid majors have a legitimate gripe with the postseason process. The recent slew of losses may have put TCU in a BCS bowl – provided they finish undefeated – but even if they do not, these smaller conferences could argue strongly that the gap has narrowed enough to open the process.
Which, of course, is the last thing the major conferences want. It’s all about the benjamins. Major conference ADs aren’t necessarily opposed to a playoff, as long as their schools are the only ones invited. That way all the money stays in the family, just as it does now. Unfortunately, as the gaps between top mid-majors and the big boys shrink, an open playoff is the only way to truly test talent.
It is true that Army, Rice, SMU and any Louisiana school not located in Baton Rouge are beyond terrible. However, TCU, Miami Ohio, Northern Illinois and Boise State would all play in the middle (at worst) in even the big conferences. It’s time to start rewarding that with some head-to-head tilts.
THE BREAKDOWN
No. 10 Purdue at No. 4 Ohio State: The Buckeyes remain the worst “good” team in college football. Two weeks ago they squeaked past Penn State and didn’t look exactly dominant last week against Michigan State. Ohio State is still a team that needs a defensive or special teams touchdown to beat you – especially if you can play a little defense. The Buckeyes get the Boilermakers in Columbus, but ought to be a little worried after Purdue ran over a touted Iowa run defense last week. In fact, Purdue has a very balanced offense even though coach Joe Tiller isn’t afraid to go one-dimensional to move the football as he did in beating Wisconsin almost exclusively through the air this year. Quarterback Kyle Orton is the Big Ten’s third-rated passer and has thrown only four interceptions to 12 touchdowns.
More importantly, the Boilermakers defense has bounced back from its collapse in Ann Arbor, ranking near the top of the conference in most relevant categories. They’ve got a good defensive front and their safeties don’t mind playing near the line of scrimmage as run stoppers. And, Purdue’s got something to play for since beating the Buckeyes keeps them in contention for a share of the league title, provided Ohio State beats Michigan in a week.
Ohio State has seen some improvement over recent weeks as the running game has finally developed some teeth. Quarterback Craig Krenzel – whose future career is behind a microscope, not a center – has been a good field general even as his passing stats remain sub par. The last part may be the problem, since the Boilermakers have been run stuffers lately, ranked third in the conference. The Buckeyes haven’t been good when forced to throw, and Purdue has been opportunistic with 13 picks on the season.
Take the Boilermakers in an upset. Even a little ground game should create enough trouble for Ohio State and deny its secondary turnover opportunities. Plus, the Wolverines loom large for the Buckeyes. Maybe looking ahead?
No. 25 Kansas State at No. 15 Nebraska: One day K-State coach Bill Snyder will learn that scheduling early season creampuffs just doesn’t cut it anymore. At best, it disguises, rather than eliminates, warts. Worse, it disguises them from your own coaching staff, since everything looks good when you’re rolling past the local tech school 77-0.
On the flip side we’ve got Nebraska’s Frank Solich, who said this week that he’s not worried about his job security. What that really means is that he’s terrified beyond rational thought and debating whether to apply for jobless benefits in Nebraska or Colorado.
And these, my friends, are the top two teams in the Big 12 North.
The Wildcats haven’t been very good on the road this year, falling to both Texas and Oklahoma State, and Lincoln is a notoriously difficult place to play, particularly since the fans are now perennially angry about not being very good.
K-State quarterback Ell Roberson is a fantastic athlete, but Nebraska will force him to put the ball in the air. While he does that much better than previous Wildcat signal callers, it usually comes after racking up huge chunks of yardage with the option. That’s unlikely to be an option against the Cornhuskers who – though not the typical “Black Shirt” defense – can still stuff the run. Snyder’s bunch looked great trouncing the bottom of the Big 12, but this team lost three straight because it couldn’t stop anyone. Tests against Colorado, Kansas, Iowa State and Baylor are not sufficient to determine if the problem has been solved.
Nebraska has its own problems, namely an inability to throw the football and come from behind. Still, it’s hard to pick a team that’s lost 17 straight road games in the series, and Nebraska – for some reason – is spoiling to play Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. If Nebraska moves the football with any regularity, the ‘Huskers get a close one a home.
No. 17 Minnesota at No. 20 Iowa: Here is another game with some postseason implications. The Golden Gophers can, with a win and another Michigan loss, still grab a share of the Big Ten lead. Iowa, on the other hand, is playing for bowl position after last week’s loss to Purdue handed it three conference losses. This sets up as one of those classic Big Ten games – big offense versus stingy defense – that never turns out the way it should.
Minnesota needed a late field goal to get past a disintegrating Wisconsin squad, and makes no pretense about trying to stop anyone. The conference’s highest scoring unit, Minnesota would rather just hurry up and get the offense back on the field. This season, they’ve rarely accomplished that by forcing opponents to punt.
Iowa has racked up yardage, but has had trouble putting up points in bunches because they lack raw speed at wide receiver and depth in the backfield. Tailback Fred Russell is averaging more than 100 yards per game on the ground, but hasn’t dominated games the way Marion Barber or Chris Perry have.
Barber and the Minnesota running game against Iowa’s front seven should be the key match up. The Gophers pushed two backs over 100 yards last week and average more than 300 rushing yards a game. Minnesota’s backfield is deep and fast, and coach Glen Mason is dedicated to a ground attack – especially is quarterback Asad Abdul-Khaliq is unable to go because of a shoulder injury.
Purdue bested Iowa a week ago by pressuring quarterback Nathan Chandler into mistakes and stuffing the run. That doesn’t play to Minnesota’s strengths. The Gophers drop seven – sometimes as many as eight – players into coverage, trying to get pressure with a three-man front. The strategy bombed for the Gophers in their losses to both Michigan schools.
Still, Minnesota is undefeated on the road, should chew clock with the ground game and force Chandler to make big plays. Take the Gophers in another Big Ten baffler.
Auburn at No. 6 Georgia: A rare breakdown of a non-Top 25 game. Before the season, most thought this would be a preview of the SEC Championship game. Georgia is still in the hunt, but the Tigers dropped out of the race after last weeks spill against Ole Miss. This series, unique in the SEC, rarely favors the home team. The visitor routinely fares well here, and Auburn is the last opponent to take home a win Between the Hedges.
Ole Miss provided a good blueprint for handling Auburn’s talented defense: protect the quarterback, stretch the field. Georgia has done neither well this year, and has been positively low-octane on offense – a puzzler given coach Mark Richt’s Florida State resume. The Bulldogs have been running the ball better, but have to figure out a way to get the ball downfield to either speedster Fred Gibson or tight end Ben Watson. Both were nearly invisible against Florida.
Auburn’s ground game is finally living up to the hype, and Cadillac Williams is a certified stud. In beating the Tigers (or War Eagles or whatever they’re calling themselves this week), most teams have loaded up to stop the run, daring quarterback Jason Campbell to beat them. Expect the ‘Dawgs to take a different tack. Georgia will put plenty of people in the box, but will frequently also blitz safeties Thomas Davis and Sean Jones, putting the onus on the Auburn receivers to make plays.
Campbell looked better against Ole Miss, and Auburn could have success dragging a tight end or running back into the spots vacated by Jones and Davis on blitzes.
Offensively, the Bulldogs have to protect the quarterback. The Tiger linebackers are the conference’s elite and fly from sideline to sideline. Georgia’s usual dink-and-dunk game plan will struggle without the ability to run between the tackles or work the deep middle of the secondary.
Injuries have decimated Georgia, but the Bulldogs had a week off to heal and figure out a passing game. Also, Georgia can still take the East’s SEC title slot if they win out. You can’t buck the ‘Dawgs after 12 straight home wins. Too close for comfort (as a UGA alum), but back the Bulldogs.
