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NCAA Weekly Football Preview
Friday, November 07, 2003 - Bill Roberts |
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After last Saturday’s college football feast, this set of games almost seems like a letdown – a bad hangover after a weekend bender. Florida and Oklahoma were easy picks, but Southern Cal’s obliteration of Washington State and Virginia Tech’s domination of Miami came as a shock. Before we go any further, let’s make a couple of points.
- If they awarded a Nobel Prize for offensive play calling, it would sit perpetually on Norm Chow’s mantle. The USC offensive coordinator calls the best game in Division I, as he demonstrated when he put the Trojans’ offense on all cylinders against a Washington State team that had won six straight. True, Bob Stoops in Oklahoma game plans with the best, and Mike Leach at Texas Tech has a dirty, dirty playbook, but Chow racks up big scores and massive yardage totals out of a primarily Pro Set offense. He’s a master at exploiting basic defensive weaknesses, and he’ll have his pick of head coaching jobs in the off-season.
- Let me join those who say Jason White shouldn’t win the Heisman Trophy. Yes, he’s got gaudy numbers. Yes, he’s quarterbacking the best team in the country. But, the Sooners have still had success when they’ve been forced to journey down the quarterback depth chart. It’s the system baby. Oklahoma’s defense gives White great field position and allows him to take chances downfield. The Sooners have recently discovered their running game, and their receiving corps – while devoid of serious superstars – is among the deepest in the country. Texas Tech’s signal caller, B.J. Symons, is another system QB, but he’s a huge part of his team’s (limited) success. White, at worst, is the difference between the Sooners being No. 1 and No. 5. Symons is the difference between his team being competitive and being an I-AA squad.
- Who should win the Heisman? Popular wisdom holds Pittsburgh sophomore wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald as the favorite, which is a strong pick. He’s gunning for 15 straight games with a touchdown catch, and he shows big-time skills every week. But, here are a couple of other names to consider: USC’s Matt Leinart and Oklahoma’s Tommie Harris. Granted, Leinart is another system QB, but he hasn’t had much time in Chow’s offense, and he’s stepped up to the plate when teams have forced him to beat them. The Harris pick just seems obvious. Jason White is a great quarterback, but he’s not even his own team’s MVP; that’s Harris, who’s simply a space-eater in the middle of the field with above-average pass rushing skills. Eli Manning is another trendy pick, but his team is a flameout waiting to happen. Even if Ole Miss makes the SEC Championship Game, any of the possible teams from the East should throttle the Rebels.
- Speaking of the SEC, does anyone approve of the Athletic Director vote as a method to break a tie atop a division? Point differential, or even the Big Ten’s “Who’s waited the longest” system, seems an improvement. The last thing the SEC needs is an excuse for feuding and recrimination – especially among Georgia, Florida and Tennessee. The coaches are taking a political tack, saying it’s likely that one of the team’s will fall making the vote irrelevant. They’d better hope so.
THE BREAKDOWN:
This week has five games featuring ranked teams, but they lack the star power of recent slates. That’s probably a good thing. Picking top-ten contests hasn’t gone well lately, especially after Miami laid that egg in Blacksburg. To make matters worse, Big Ten games are involved. But, enough recrimination. This week, we’ll try and figure out two conference contests and one that was billed as a preseason blockbuster.
No.5 Virginia Tech at No. 21 Pittsburgh: As discussed above, the Panthers boast the best player in the country in Larry Fitzgerald. Unfortunately, they’ve got little else. This bunch has underachieved on both sides of the ball this season, struggling to score points against suspect defenses (Notre Dame, Boston College), while also allowing too many points to clearly terrible offenses (Notre Dame, Toledo, Texas A&M). The bigger problems, obviously, are on defense, where Pitt ranks near the bottom of the conference against the run – a scary statistic when you rank ahead of only Temple and Rutgers, even scarier when you’re playing Virginia Tech. The Panthers are next to last in the Big East on the ground. Bringing a one-dimensional offense to play against the Hokies usually doesn’t go well. As for Va. Tech, the only risk seems to be avoiding a letdown after pounding Miami. The Hokies should be able to do what they do best – run the ball – which means the offensive weak link (quarterback Bryan Randall) shouldn’t be put in too many positions to cost his team the game. Even on the road, even with a (very) hostile crowd, take the Hokies.
No. 17 Tennessee at No. 7 Miami: Many think this may be the game of the week. I’m not one of them. Maybe it’s the SEC hack in me, but Tennessee is not a very good football team, and Casey Claussen is a supremely overrated quarterback. If the Volunteers can’t come out running the football, they’ll get buried. Take Tennessee’s recent matchups with Auburn and Georgia: in neither game did it manufacture any semblance of a ground attack – even early when the games were still in doubt. It’s not all Claussen’s fault. The Vols simply have very little tested talent at wide receiver. It’s never a good sign when your best deep threat is also your backup quarterback. The lack of a ground game is baffling. Tennessee has a veteran line and the SEC’s second best backfield behind Auburn. When teams show a dedication to run between the tackles, Miami’s interior defense has struggled. The Volunteers have to take advantage of that and avoid the Florida State temptation to dink and dunk at the edges. The Hurricanes are simply too fast. As for Miami, even the mild-mannered Larry Coker should have no trouble getting his teams attention after last week’s debacle. The ‘Canes haven’t lost back-to-back games since 1999 and won’t do so Saturday if Brock Berlin can make safe decisions with the football. He shouldn’t be put in a position where he’s got to make big plays to win. Take Miami; it could be laugher.
No. 15 Michigan State at No. 6 Ohio State: Well, we’ve reached the Big Ten portion of the breakdown, meaning logic no longer applies. How do you figure this conference out? And while we’re on the subject of the unexplained, is anyone sure why the Buckeyes are ranked in the top ten? Anyone? This is not a good football team. Yes, they are a solid, disciplined squad, but they lack talent and speed on offense. I’m sure Jim Tressel is a hell of a guy, but his team is out of its depth. That should make Michigan State the easy pick, but the Spartans are on the road after a loss to Michigan with questions on defense. This game is a dead heat on paper, and should be close in Columbus. When in doubt, take the team with the better defense: the Buckeyes. Ohio State is athletic enough to cover the Spartans’ spread offense with minimal adjustments and should be able to put pressure on the quarterback. If Michigan State can’t run the ball – and the season thus far suggests it cannot – the Buckeyes will get some turnover opportunities, which the offense sorely needs. If Ohio State gets up early, watch the offense go ultra-conservative to avoid a momentum swing. The Spartans needed a late defensive touchdown to make things respectable against Michigan last week. Tressel will be sure they don’t get the chance on Saturday. |
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