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NCAA Weekly Football Preview
Friday, October 31, 2003 - Bill Roberts
NCAA Football Logo

It is finally here: the best college football day of the season. A host of massive-implication games highlight the schedule as teams' title runs turn serious. A few weeks ago the pundits proclaimed "Separation Saturday." It was a good college football weekend, but it pales in comparison to the upcoming clashes. If this weekend is Steve Spurrier, the other weekend is Ron Zook (more on that below).

Think about it. You've got a surfeit of great games between ranked teams, and most of them are brutal, nasty rivalry games. You've got Miami-Virginia Tech, Georgia-Florida, Michigan-Michigan State and Oklahoma-Oklahoma State to start with. More? How about Florida State-Notre Dame, Washington State-Southern Cal and Nebraska-Texas? That’s some serious firepower for one Saturday.

Sure, some of these games could be bigger. Most thought Notre Dame would be ranked for its clash with the Seminoles (not me, though, who thinks the Irish are terrible and at least a year away with that young, live-armed quarterback). The folks in Texas who don't realize that Mack Brown is their head coach likely expected the Longhorns to be undefeated. Same for the Nebraska faithful (who are all too painfully aware that Frank Solich is at the helm), given that the 'Huskers seemingly hadn't lost to Missouri since – apologies to Lewis Grizzard -- Roosevelt's administration … Teddy.

Still, there are some surprise stories. Georgia wasn't supposed to be this good, with a ravaged offensive line and an all-new linebacking corps. Southern Cal is doing it with smoke, mirrors, defense and a first-year quarterback. Washington State has a new head coach, but the same results. And I dare anyone who didn't matriculate in East Lansing to say they pegged the Spartans to sit alone atop the Big Ten more than midway through the season.

To top it all off, this weekend is a BCS buster. The computers may explode when fed this data. Really, it’s potentially what BCS opponents have waited for: a slew of one-loss teams and only some bizarre formula to work it out. But enough of that, on to the picks.

The Picks 

These games could be nail-biters. They'll come down to more than homefield advantage and rivalries. Trying to pick this set of games straight up is folly. So, in the interest of brevity and (hopefully) accuracy, bring on the point spread. Even so, a .500 record for this weekend is a success.

No. 1 Oklahoma (-15.5) at No. 15 Oklahoma State: The Sooners are still the class of the country right now. Quarterback Jason White does few things wrong his receivers are as deep as any in the country, and you can't say enough about the defense. Oklahoma State has been a surprising offensive team, but it's given up a ton of points – especially late in games – that shouldn’t change against the boys from Norman. Plus, Oklahoma is still smarting from two straight losses to the Cowboys. Fifteen-plus points isn't so much for Oklahoma at home. Late touchdowns mean separation.

Take the Sooners.

No. 2 Miami (-3.5) at No. 11 Virginia Tech: Most thought this was a contest that would settle a Sugar Bowl berth, until the Hokies ran into a buzzsaw in Morgantown last week. The game still means a lot for Miami, which would be in great position for the final weeks, but also for Virginia Tech, which would love to jump into the middle of the one-loss chaos atop the polls. Miami has looked shaky at times, but seems to have regained its defensive identity. No one knows about the Hokies, however. Their front seven looked lost and confused against West Virginia, and it's tough for the coaches to fix what's wrong up front and still gameplan the Hurricanes. Plus, the Hokies showed they don't play well when behind by a couple of scores. Bryan Randall is a weapon, no question. But his out of the pocket skills aren’t as big a threat of the opposing defense can spread out the secondary and go zone. That's what happened last week in the second half as Virginia Tech couldn't afford to try and get Jones loose in the secondary. The book on Tech hasn't changed: stuff the box, make the quarterback beat you deep and protect the football. If Miami can run the ball – even just a little – and avoid special teams problems with a young punter, this one could be easy for the 'Canes.

Take Miami, give the points.

No. 6 Washington State (+12) vs. No. 3 Southern Cal: Sometimes the line makes the pick for you. No way should the Cougars be 12-point 'dogs against the Trojans, unless the folks in Vegas know something the rest of us don't. These are two teams ranked in the top six who, lately, have played tight games. True, Washington State looked bad against Oregon State last week, committing seven turnovers. But, that the Cougs were looking ahead to a possible Pac-10 clinching showdown on Saturday (though most forget UCLA is still undefeated in conference play). The Trojans have put up big numbers and been stingy on defense. The same thing was true last season when State got an overtime field goal and hung more than 500 yards on a very good defensive unit. And, Washington State looks capable of doing what Cal did in dropping the Trojans: a little bit of everything. The Bears threw short passes, ran wide, threw in trick plays, and used everything but the band to score touchdowns. The Cougars have shown decent balance recently and can do some of the same things. As long as they don’t commit seven turnovers or 14 penalties (as they did against Notre Dame), the Cougars will stay in the game. Is Southern Cal a better team? Yes. Twelve points better against a team that's won six straight?

No. 4 Georgia (-2) vs. No. 21 Florida: This is everything this game ought to be. It's the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, and – trust me – it lives up to the billing. Still, the one seems fraught with danger for Georgia. If you're

ranked in the top-five, you ought to be favored at a neutral site, but this one feels bad for the 'Dawgs. After a lackluster outing against Vanderbilt, Georgia followed with an equally terrible outing against Alabama-Birmingham and managed to get most of its defense injured in the process. Not a good situation.

This game has a massive impact on the conference race. If Georgia wins, it can lose to Auburn and still win the SEC East. Should Florida win and neither team drop another conference contest, the division would be locked in an irresolvable three-way tie. SEC athletic directors would then choose between Georgia, Florida and Tennessee in an unprecedented method of picking a conference championship game rep. Florida, meanwhile, is coming off a bye week and two big road wins over LSU and Arkansas. The Gators are also largely injury free, while Bulldogs' star receiver Fred Gibson won't be at 100 percent, if he plays at all. The Gators have won 12 of 13 in the series.

This one will be close. Close enough to take Florida and the points.

No. 9 Nebraska (+5) at No. 16 Texas: This game is turning into Big 12's annual showdown for No. 2 behind Oklahoma. In fact, this game should be of great interest to most Nebraska fans. Texas tries to do everything Oklahoma does – it just doesn't do them nearly as well. If the 'Huskers fall to the Longhorns and still make the Big 12 title game, they may lose by 35 points. This game has its own warning signs for Big Red. Texas can move the football, and quarterback Vincent Young can cause serious migraines for the defensive line. The 'Huskers defense has been very good, but it will need to be perfect on Saturday. As it demonstrated against Missouri, Nebraska cannot erase big deficits. The offense is one-dimensional, and Jamal Lord makes poor decisions when forced to try and take over games. The Texas defense is a decent unit with enough speed to the sidelines that Nebraska will need to run between the tackles, historically the last place you want to hit a Texas defense. Look for the 'Horns to go up top early to get the 'Huskers in a hole. After that, it's a steady diet of run blitzes and man coverage.

Take Texas at home.

No. 12 Michigan (-4) at No. 10 Michigan State: Here's another game where the spread seems off. The Spartans are unbeaten in the conference and playing at home, yet they’re underdogs to a two-loss, two-faced Michigan squad. The Wolverines are like the cheating girlfriend in a country music song: sometimes they treat you good, but they'll always break your heart again. This bunch is more mercurial than even Oregon or Kansas State. Trying to handicap any Big Ten game is tough, but adding Michigan to the mix is only a recipe for looking ignorant. And, it's an in-state rivalry game. Just too much to consider. The Wolverines defense looked back in a big way against a psyched out Purdue team. They'll see a similar style against the Spartans who want to spread the field and throw short passes. That side of the game could be a wash.

The question is how well Michigan plays offensively. The Spartans will likely try and take away Chris Perry and throw a host of cloud coverages, forcing John Navarre to check off to his backs. Two consecutive big games from Navarre are unlikely, and the Wolverines have been miserable on the road losing to Oregon and Iowa and needing an enormous comeback to get by Minnesota.

Michigan may win, but it won’t cover.

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