THE BRACKETS
ATLANTA REGIONAL
These first and second round games have the potential to be rife with surprises. The four/thirteen and five/twelve match-ups both have upset possibilities. Look for at least one of the lower seeds pull it off.
Upset Specials - Cincinnati is always suspect come tourney time. The Bearcats have made only one Final Four during Bob Huggins’ tenure (but hey, that’s one more Final Four appearance than players graduated. Kudos), and this team is no different other recent Bearcat squads that have come up short. They defend very well, but they have trouble scoring the ball. East Tennessee State is tremendously athletic and tore through the Southern Conference (a more difficult conference than many might realize). Their lone conference loss was a narrow two-point defeat on the road to perennial NCAA contender College of Charleston. If ETSU is in striking distance late, the Bearcats will find a way to self-destruct as they do every March.
Illinois and Murray State face off in the always treacherous five/twelve game.
Ivy League champion Princeton drew a fourteen seed and meets Texas in the first round. Princeton is a trendy upset pick every year they make the field, and with good reason. The Tigers’ offensive style, while perhaps offensive to watch, is exceedingly effective, and they run it very well. With almost every offensive possession milking 30-35 seconds off the clock, Princeton will probably find itself in a position to pull the upset late, but in the end Texas has too many athletes for the Ivy Leaguers to handle.
In the seven/ten battle, if Louisville is finally healthy for the first time since January and Xavier plays the kind of games they played against St. Joe’s and George Washington in the A-10 Tournament, then this could be the best game of the tournament. However, both of those will not happen, and the smart bet is on Xavier coming back to earth after a phenomenal run last week and falling to the Cardinals. Plus, Pitino is deadly in March.
A look ahead to some of the potential second round games reveals several intriguing match-ups. North Carolina vs. Texas would feature one coach who left the ACC for the Big 12 (Rick Barnes from Clemson) against a coach who left the Big 12 for the ACC (Roy Williams from Kansas). This game would highlight two teams with vastly different styles. North Carolina does not play even a modicum of defense, but that shouldn’t be a problem since Texas seems to have an aversion to putting the ball in the basket. UNC’s offensive abilities should carry them through to the sweet sixteen with the upset over the Longhorns.
Should Arizona defeat Seton Hall in its first round game, it will set up a rematch of the 2001 national title game between Arizona and Duke. The Blue Devils have changed personnel entirely since that match-up without any drop-off in talent or success. Arizona had followed a similar pattern, but this year they experienced an inexplicable drop-off. Regardless of the disappointing (by Arizona standards) regular season, these Wildcats have enough talent to make a run at the Dukies. With that said, don’t look for Duke to fall-out until the regional finals at the earliest.
Sweet Sixteen Teams – Duke, Illinois, UNC, Louisville
Regional Winner – UNC
PHOENIX REGIONAL
This region doesn’t appear to have nearly the upset possibilities of Atlanta, but there are some compelling first round throw-downs.
DePaul and Dayton promises to be a phenomenal game. Dayton very quietly won the West Division in the A-10, while DePaul even more quietly tied for the regular season C-USA Title and secured the top seed in the conference tournament. Both squads made runs to their conference tournament finals, which, given their seeds, may have been necessary – not superfluous. DePaul is a senior laden team with a former McDonald’s All-American in Andre Brown. Look for their senior leadership to guide them past the jitters of playing in the program’s first tournament game since 2000.
Upset Specials – Watch for Western Michigan to upend a Vanderbilt team that has benefited greatly from record inflation after a very weak non-conference schedule. The Broncos enter the tournament on a roll that started in the MAC regular season and continued through the conference tournament.
Southern Illinois and Alabama meet up in the always impossible to accurately pick eight/nine game. Alabama seems to have the air of a team just happy to be dancing. The Tide played their tournament last month just to get this far, while the Salukis enter with a chip on their shoulder after an early exit from their conference tournament. Southern Illinois should take this game and set-up the second round showdown with The Cardinal.
A compelling potential second round game pits the last two national champions, Syracuse and Maryland, against each other. Sure, the best players from both of those teams are gone now, but if this game happens you can count on Jim Nantz referencing that fact at least 192 times over the course of the game. Expect the ‘Cuse to march into the sweet sixteen rather handily against a Maryland team that is overdue to come back down to earth after playing miles over its head last week.
A final game to watch in the second round is UConn/DePaul. UConn is not healthy, and DePaul’s Andre Brown is a physical player who could give a less-than-100-percent Emeka Okafor fits.
Sweet Sixteen Teams – Stanford, Syracuse, N.C. State and Depaul
Regional Winner - Stanford
