This is where parity gets you.
If one thing stands out in this year’s NCAA Tournament field of 65 – aside from the fact that Phil Marteli would smoke Billy Packer in a street fight – it’s that the selection committee had a tough time throughout the bracket, not just placing small conference winners and bubble teams. Several teams had legitimate claims to No. 1 seeds, and the seeding for the second and third spots in the four regions didn’t look to be an easier.
Any time a Pittsburgh squad at 29-4 falls to a No. 3 seed based on a last second shot in a conference championship game, you know things are crowded at the top. And seedings didn’t do strong finishers any favors. Xavier rode a late-season surge to the A-10 tournament title, an upset of undefeated St. Joseph’s and a No. 7 seed. The reward? A first round date with No. 10 Louisville. Seton Hall played good basketball down the stretch in the ever-brutal Big East. But the Pirates and their No. 8 seed earned streaky Arizona in the first round. Granted, the Wildcats have been all over the map this year, but that’s still a rough tilt.
Before breaking down the brackets, here is a look at the fortunate at-large bids and those headed for the NIT’s Sock Hop.
LUCKY TO BE THERE:
There will always be debates about undeserving bids. Sometimes, it's the sixth or seventh team from a power conference that draws ire. This year, the backlash follows the smaller leagues. Fans and committee critics will have a fun time blasting the choices, but the last-teams-in picks are just another indication of parity. Sure, teams are increasingly even, but it's not a level playing field yet. Here are a couple of teams whose resumes may not stack up:
AIR FORCE: True, the Falcons play that baffling Princeton offense that frustrates up-tempo teams with its myriad back-door cuts and snail-like pace. And, Air Force will likely be an en vogue pick for a first-round upset given its matchup with patience-challenged North Carolina. But "quality" wins over Utah and BYU (a 3-1 total record) does not a tournament resume make.
BYU: If Air Force doesn't deserve to go despite wins over BYU, what does that mean for the Cougars? Probably that the squad ought to be staying home in Provo. True, BYU has a big time talent in the form of center Rafael Araujo, but this bunch needs its best game and a very off night from Syracuse to move past the Orange, who are very dangerous as a five seed.
UTEP: A great turnaround story, but another team that doesn't fit the bill for an at-large team -- particularly with some major conference heavies cast aside. Does anyone really think UTEP would fare well against most of the NIT field -- even a schizophrenic and young Oklahoma squad? It's probably irrelevant, since Maryland -- the hottest team in the tournament -- is the first-round draw.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN: No big surprises here, except perhaps Utah State. But there are still some schools with tournament-caliber seasons that are frozen out. The committee needs to decide if it’s goal is to put the best squads – regardless of conference affiliation – into the tournament after the automatic bids are filled. If that’s the case then this year’s dance card is the worse for excluding:
COLORADO: The Buffs missed out on the dance, despite finishing ahead of Texas Tech in the Big 12, when they flamed out in the conference tourney. The committee took the Red Raiders and their early season drubbing over Oklahoma State over Colorado (Bob Knight’s personality and Andre Emmett’s star power didn’t hurt). Parity in the middle of the conference hurt Colorado as well, since most of the squads – Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska – spent much of the season’s second half beating up on each other.
MISSOURI: A note to Tigers’ coach Quinn Snyder: The committee rewards teams that play tough schedules, but only when they win some of those tough games. Missouri – which entered the season with mammoth expectations – stumbled out of the gate and never got it’s legs back, unlike Michigan State. Of course, the Spartans had the luxury of playing the last two months of the season almost exclusively in a watered-down Big Ten, while Missouri limped through a Big 12 schedule devoid of many cupcakes.
MICHIGAN: The Wolverines probably needed a semifinal win over Illinois to squeak into the tournament. A fifth-place Big Ten finish is usually good enough for the dance, but the committee made a strong statement about conference mediocrity, taking just three schools. That Michigan’s non-conference slate lacked major difficulty or wins didn’t help matters.
FLORIDA STATE: Along with Colorado, the Seminoles have the best gripe with the committee. Florida State would have given the ACC a seventh team in the tournament, more than any other conference. Given how the season and conference tournament played out, can anyone argue the league didn’t deserve it? FSU was winless away from Tallahassee in league play, though it played several close games on the road. Close wasn’t enough to send the ‘Noles dancing. Still, if the committee wanted the best at-large teams in the tournament, Florida State deserved a bid.
UTAH STATE: Despite its gaudy record, Utah State’s exclusion wasn’t a total shock, and proved another March axiom to be true: if you’re in a suspect conference and don’t play anyone outside of the league, you better win the conference tournament. Utah State would have no room to gripe were it not for the inclusion of Air Force and BYU.
OTHERS: Notre Dame’s late season surge wasn’t enough to overcome a mid-season drought. Purdue’s slim hopes washed away with its first-round tourney loss to lowly Minnesota. LSU’s fortunes faded with the loss of its best player, and Georgia’s wins over Kentucky (twice) and Florida weren’t enough to overcome anemic play away from Athens and a 5-5 record over its last 10 games.
THE BRACKETS
ST. LOUIS
For the first year, the tournament committee ranked the No. 1 seeds, giving a sense of power to the brackets. This is likely irrelevant, since all four seeds won’t show up in San Antonio. Kentucky certainly seems to benefit from the arrangement, however. For all the talk of parity, the Wildcats’ bracket looks to be the most straightforward of the lot. It’s also a very physical bracket, with Providence, Kansas, Michigan State and Boston College in the mix.
Upset Specials – There aren’t many here, though some first-round games could be close. Taking UAB over Washington is hardly an upset since better than 50 percent of the No. 9 seeds advance. The Blazers warrant a close look, though, since they play great defense and turn steals into points. It’s unclear if they’ve got enough consistent scoring to make a run, but they could give Kentucky trouble in the second round. The Wildcats’ lack of a true point guard hurt them in losses to Georgia and Louisville – two teams with opportunistic defenses that pressure the ball, much like UAB.
On the flip side, Conference USA’s six bids to the tournament will go down as one of the greatest snow jobs in history, and UAB (and Charlotte, DePaul and Memphis) could easily be a total fraud. Northern Iowa is a scary team. They defend and have great scoring balance, but ousting Georgia Tech will be a tall order. Still, it’s one of the few intriguing first-round matchups.
Providence vs. Pacific is another interesting game. Boston College completely shut down the Friars in the Big East tourney, but stifling defense is hardly Pacific’s game. The 5-12 games usually bring at least one upset, however, so this is a game to watch.
Predictions: Kentucky should move into the Sweet 16 with prospective matchups against Providence or Kansas. The Wildcats are much too athletic for either team. In the bottom of the bracket, Gonzaga could have trouble with Michigan State in the second round. Tom Izzo’s team can pile up points and might be too physical for an undersized Bulldog squad that touts only (the admittedly outstanding) Ronnie Turiaf inside. Both teams will have matchup problems against Georgia Tech. Watching the Yellow Jackets, you wonder where the rebounding comes from, but they score the ball and are deep on the bench. A Regional Final battle against Kentucky would be a great show to watch.
Final Take – Sweet 16: Kentucky, Providence, Georgia Tech, Michigan State
Regional Winner: Kentucky
EAST RUTHERFORD
While St. Joe’s might not have deserved a No. 1 seed, you can’t help but think that if the Hawks had shown as much intensity in their conference tourney as their coach showed in calling out the insufferable Billy Packer, none of this debate would be necessary. In getting the fourth No. 1, St. Joe’s also gets the toughest No. 2 seed in Oklahoma State as well as bruisers Pitt and Wisconsin and another streaky team in Wake Forest.
Upsets: Backing C-USA might be a bracket killer, but Charlotte has a great resume. Unless Texas Tech heats up behind the three-point line, the 49ers shoot-first-play-defense-later strategy could run the Raiders out of the building. Charlotte has great wins at Syracuse and against Louisville.
Manhattan is en vogue as an upset pick – and with good reason. The Jaspers have a hot property in coach Bobby Gonzales, and guard Luis Flores can fill it up, averaging 24 points per game. Plus, Manhattan gets Florida in the first round, a young team with depth issues that still tries to play as if it has Udonis Haslem in the middle.
South Carolina could easily drop Memphis, but that’d hardly be an upset. The Tigers are overrated at No. 7. Richmond is another team with upset potential.
Predictions: While Liberty won’t provide much challenge (though it’s the best bet for a first-ever 16th seed upset) to St. Joe’s, Charlotte will be a great opponent in the second round. If March is about guard play and three-point shooting, that contest could be epic. Whoever advances from the Manhattan-Florida tilt won’t get past Wake Forest in the second round. Skip Prosser’s bunch has a tendency to let teams hang around – never a good thing come tourney time – but is one of the few teams comfortable playing games in the 60s and the 90s.
Pittsburgh probably isn’t happy about a prospective second round match against Wisconsin in Milwaukee, but it might not even come to pass. Richmond’s win over Kansas earlier this season showed the Spiders can play Big Ten slow-down basketball. However, the Badgers a better bet, especially after dismantling a more athletic Illinois team in the Big Ten finals. While each squad in a St. Joe’s-Charlotte contest might go over 100 points, a Pitt-Wisconsin final score may not total 100 points. Similarly, a Pitt-Oklahoma State game would be a monster and the only blip the Cowboys have en route to the Final Four. Potential opponents should shudder to see OSU gain confidence with big wins in the first two rounds.
Final Take – Sweet 16: Charlotte, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh Oklahoma State.
Regional Winner: Oklahoma State
