St. Louis Cardinals (105-57) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69)
Game 1: Woody Williams vs. Odalis Perez
Game 2: Jason Marquis vs. Jeff Weaver
Game 3: Matt Morris vs. Jose Lima
(Note: If Game 4 is necessary, St. Louis will start Jeff Suppan)
The Cardinals are coming off a banner year with the best record in baseball, and led the NL Central wire to wire. The Dodgers rebounded from their dreadful offensive 2003 to return to the postseason for the first time since 1996. Two historic franchises with two great recovery seasons in what should be an amazing series.
Undoubtedly the strength of the Cardinals this season was the Scott Rolen-Albert Pujols-Jim Edmonds trifecta, the healthiest heart of the order. The trio combined for 122 home runs, 503 hits, 344 runs scored, and 358 RBI; the Milwaukee Brewers had 135 home runs as a team! Also, Edgar Renteria proved reliable down the stretch, and Tony Womack was a gift in hiding.
The Dodgers were the division leaders for the majority of the season, mainly on the backs of MVP candidate Adrian Beltre, who finally consummated the pressure placed on him as the next big thing at Chavez Ravine. He became a more patient hitter, and went on to lead the majors with 48 home runs. Many (including myself) thought that the deadline deal that sent Guillermo Mota, Paul Do Luca and Juan Encarnacion to Florida would kill the team. Naturally, they proved everyone wrong. David Ross has stepped up as starting catcher, and the bullpen held its own. They were powered by other additions as well; Steve Finley’s walk-off grand slam added insult to injury in the seven-run ninth to clinch.
Both pitching staffs are relatively weak in postseason experience, but both staffs were surprisingly impressive this season. The Birds’ staff isn’t that imposing on paper, but Jason Marquis (15-7, 3.71) and Chris Carpenter (15-5, 3.46) were a bonus, and Woody Williams and Matt Morris held their own.
Will it be Lima Time these playoffs? The Dodgers certainly hope so. But Odalis Perez will get the start in the opener, followed by Jeff “I like the West Coast” Weaver and Lima.
The key for the Cardinals will be to avoid Gagne, while the Dodgers need to attack the Cards early to go around their stellar lead-protecting bullpen. Although the Dodgers show promise, the heart of the St. Louis order may be too much for the young staff.
Prediction: Cardinals in 4. Expect lots of offense, which favors St. Louis.
Atlanta Braves (96-66) vs. Houston Astros (92-70)
Game 1: Jaret Wright vs. Roger Clemens
Game 2: Mike Hampton vs. Roy Oswalt
Game 3: John Thompson vs. Brandon Backe
This can be labeled the cockroach series: it involved two teams who just wouldn’t die.
The Astros were left for dead in August; Andy Pettitte and Wade Miller were lost for the season, and team staples Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio were struggling. Then, with a 44-44 record, they went off on a 36-10 tear, led by new manager Phil Garner, and won the (extremely) Wild Card on the last day of the season.
Everyone wrote the Braves off; they said the defending champ Marlins and the rising Phillies would take the NL East. Bobby Cox had other plans. The consummate NL manager worked with his team, made due with a struggling offense, and somehow managed to win his 13th straight division title as manager of the Bravos.
The Astros have Bagwell, Biggio, Lance Berkman, Jeff Kent and Carlos Beltran. The Braves have Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, Johnny Estrada and a resurgent J.D. Drew.
But the X-factor of this series will be the staffs. Both are very mediocre, but have their bright spots. Roger Clemens will probably capture the Cy Young this season (nice retirement, eh?), and Roy Oswalt won 20 games. A nice little 1-2 punch. Youngster Brandon Backe, whose steady outing helped the Astros clinch Sunday, will hold the bottom of the three-man rotation.
Brad Lidge was flat-out the best NL closer the last month of the season (Eric Gagne included). He entered the record books with 157 strikeouts in 94.2 RELIEF innings. Minute Maid Park clearly forgot about that other closer that they shipped out west.
Atlanta’s staff, which was always their strength in their division runs, is their thread this season; they’ve hung on for dear live with a squad that doesn’t exactly resemble Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz. But Jaret Wright (the formerly-washed-up Indians sensation from 1997), Mike Hampton, and John Thompson have produced for Atlanta. And they have John Smoltz, who still can be a force late in the game.
The Braves have had a great run this season, but the upstart team from the Lone Star state will take this series. The Astros’ 18 consecutive home field victories will kill the Braves once they split the first two at Turner.
Prediction: Astros in 4. Clemens wins both Games 1 and 4, with Oswalt taking Game 2 as well.
Tim Heaney is an undergraduate student at Boston University majoring in Print Journalism. In his limited free time he is a staff writer for BU's independent student newspaper The Daily Free Press.
