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Octoberfest: The ALDS
Tuesday, October 05, 2004 - Tim Heaney
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When watching some of the results from this final weekend of baseball, I felt like Milton Bradley; I didn’t get what I want, so I went ballistic.

The Cubs were supposed to make the playoffs.

Talk about goats.

There was supposed to be a tiebreak schedule for Monday and Tuesday involving three teams mired in postseason dreams.

I’ll need to pick a new dream.

The reality, however, ended up something I find hard to complain about.

October is here.

Let’s see who has the edge in the upcoming Division Series round.

New York Yankees (101-61) vs. Minnesota Twins (92-70)

Game 1: Mike Mussina vs. Johan Santana
Game 2: Jon Lieber vs. Brad Radke
Game 3: Orlando Hernandez or Kevin Brown vs. Carlos Silva

The circle is complete. Another ALDS, another Bombers-Twinkies matchup. The Yanks have the hitting, the Twins have the pitching. Big market versus small market is the theme.

The Yanks “underachieved” by winning only 101 games this season. Their payroll justifies at least 130. They clinched the division title while sweeping this very same Twinkie squad.

The Bronx Bombers lived up to their nickname this season, tying for the Major League lead in team home runs with the Chicago White Sox. Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, and Hideki Matsui all hit over 30 home runs and drove in over 100 runs. Sheffield and Matsui have provided the clutch aspect for the Yankees, who also led the league with 61 comeback victories.

The Yankees clinched the AL East last week in storybook fashion, ironically, in their last game against the Twins. Bernie Williams, who had a Steinbrenner-ego-sized monkey on his back the entire season with his “dwindling play,” hit a 2-run walk-off dinger that reminded the Bronx faithful of the Bernie that has hit 19 career postseason home runs, the most in major league history.

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Rotation issues continue to kill the Yanks just as they have all season. Just when Orlando Hernandez was taking the ace role, his shoulder has apparently scared pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre. However old El Duque may be, his 8-2 record this season was the crutch for the rotation the Yankees desperately needed. Their future may rest on his ageless shoulder. Mike Mussina will start Game 1, coming off a 3-1 stint with a 2.14 ERA in six starts. Jon Lieber is a surprisingly consistent start, and his quick pace may help his presence this postseason. But with Kevin Brown’s short-lived boxing career, Javier Vazquez’s delivery issues, and Esteban Loaiza choking in prime time adding to Duque-Gate,” the Yanks have to be worried.

The hot Twins rotation must also concern Yanks nation. Johan Santana is the hottest pitcher in the majors, Brad Radke leads the league in quality starts, and their bullpen is solid with Joe Nathan backed up by Juan Rincon and J.C. Romero. The Twins won their third straight division title two weeks ago, and remain the most underrated team in the majors. The Twins can hold their own from the plate as well. They are a fast, dangerous, young team; Shannon Stewart, Justin Mourneau, Torii Hunter and Lew Ford are catalysts in run production.

Still, one cannot overlook the Yankees’ immense advantage in talent. The Boss’ money isn’t there for nothing.

Oh, and did I mention Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera?

Prediction: Yanks in 4. Santana will take the first game, but that’s all the Twins will do. A Quantum Leap-style repeat of last year’s DS.

Anaheim Angels (92-70) vs. Boston Red Sox (98-64)

Game 1: Jarrod Washburn vs. Curt Schilling
Game 2: Bartolo Colon vs. Pedro Martinez
Game 3: Kelvim Escobar vs. Tim Wakefield.
(Note: If Game 4 is necessary, the Red Sox will start Bronson Arroyo.)

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These two battled it out for the Wild Card, but Anaheim ended up with a late surge to capture the West for the first time in 18 years (thanks to the, ahem…Athletics…something lodged in my throat…I think I’m chok---you get the point). Anaheim went 7-2 to finish the season and stay the course to the wild card.

The Red Sox turned their season around after catcher Jason Varitek’s skirmish with Yankee third baseman Alex Rodriguez, and third baseman Bill Mueller hit a walk-off home run in front of the Fenway crowd in the same game. The Red Sox pulled within two and a half of the hated Yanks, but couldn’t convert late in the season.

The Red Sox have the rotation advantage here; Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez are probably the best 1-2 punch in a short series, and they’ll go with a four-man rotation with Tim Wakefield and Bronson Arroyo. Anaheim’s rotation of Bartolo Colon, Jarrod Washburn and Kelvim Escobar has been suspect all season, and that certainly won’t help them. What will help the Angels will be their bullpen, the best in baseball. The non-Mariano best AL reliever K-Rod Francisco Rodriquez and overpowering closer Troy Percival (not to mention situational dynamos Brendan Donnelly and Scot Shields) give the edge to the Angels in the later innings. Keith Foulke has been shaky for Boston recently, and dating back to last year, their bullpen has been suspect. They better hope for a surprise performance like last year.

Both lineups, however, make it seem like the pitching won’t matter. These teams tied for the league lead with team averages of .282. The Red Sox scored a major-league-leading 949 runs this season. David Ortiz, Trot Nixon, Manny Ramirez, and Kevin Millar like to heat up this time of season. The Sox have the most complete lineup from top to bottom in the major leagues. The Angles have Vladimir Guerrero. That would normally be enough, but they have a healthy Troy Glaus (dominant in the 2002 playoffs) and Garrett Anderson. The Angels have to live without resident whipping boy Jose Guillen, as they will most likely leave him off the postseason roster. But they’ve been designed to fill in gaps all season– just ask Jeff DaVanon and Chone Figgins.

(On a side note, I think Anaheim is overreacting about this whole thing. Milton Bradley has done much worse in LA. At least Guillen is out there playing passionately and crushing the ball. The Angels basically forced Guillen not to play. The reason why he argued was because he wanted to stay in the game! Now, I don’t know if there’s more to the story, but lighten up Angels. It’s not like he attacked the manager.)

Anyways, this may be the most entertaining series in the playoffs. Two almost evenly matched teams, probably the two most complete teams in the AL. Almost such a toss-up, but you can’t deny the power of Schilling in the postseason.

Prediction: Red Sox in 5. Schilling owns Game 1, Anaheim takes 2 and 3, Pedro pitches on three days rest to win Game 4, and Schilling slams the door in Game 5 to setup another matchup of the century.


Tim Heaney is an undergraduate student at Boston University majoring in Print Journalism. In his limited free time he is a staff writer for BU's independent student newspaper The Daily Free Press.

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