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NBA Fantasy Preview: Shooting Guards
Thursday, October 28, 2004 - Stephen Heidt |
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Since I omitted the methodology from the first chapter of this draft guide, I’ll go into a little detail here. I decided on a two year average primarily because there was less time involved in entering the data, but there is some value to using a shorter scale. The life of the NBA player is marked by meteoric rise and fall. Three years is a long time. Little would be gained by adding a third year. Kobe was great then, he’s great now. Adding a third year only risks skewing the data by including year’s prior to a player making “the leap” or after a player’s made “the decline”. The other anomaly with the data is that I did not accurately compute the percentages. Instead, it’s an average of the two previous seasons. While it’s certainly not the most accurate, it does give a reasonable range for most players.
Ok, down to the 2-guard position. There’s a lot of depth here, so fantasy owners shouldn’t be too disappointed if they don’t land McGrady or Kobe. The key is to look for value in later rounds.
1) Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
44.5 |
84.7 |
98 |
2009 |
462 |
406 |
147 |
48 |
230 | | With last year’s distractions behind him and Shaq comfortably out of the picture, expect Kobe to blow up this year. A scoring average north of 30/game is not unreasonable. Only concern is those turnovers.
2) Tracy McGrady, Houston Rockets
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
43.7 |
79.5 |
174 |
2143 |
445 |
391 |
109 |
51 |
187 | | Some prospective fantasy owners might be concerned about TMac fitting in with Van Gundy and Yao down in Houston. Don’t be. TMac is a sure thing each and every year. Not only that, the Rockets have virtually no point guard which means TMac will have to do more with the ball. Expect similar numbers.
3) Ray Allen, Seattle Sonics
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
43.9 |
91 |
175 |
1500 |
334 |
301 |
87 |
13 |
177 | | Last year was an injury year for Allen so his averages are a little depressed. When healthy, Shuttlesworth fills up the box score. Expect big things from him as he’s got an uncertain future and the Sonics need him to play big.
4) Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
40.9 |
69 |
143 |
1194 |
237 |
411 |
125 |
25 |
178 | | A lot of fantasy GMs might value Pierce over Allen, but for my money, shooting percentages and turnovers are more difficult categories than points and rebounds. Pierce is the type of fantasy player whose strengths make you proud and whose weaknesses make you want to throw up in your mouth.
5) Allen Iverson, Philadelphia 76ers
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
40.1 |
75.9 |
71 |
1764 |
261 |
389 |
170 |
9 |
248 | | AI is on the downside in his career, but is still a valuable fantasy player. This year, his value remains high because it’s only a matter of weeks before he is PG eligible. That means more assists and fewer points, but it’s the steals that really put him up this high. With Obie installed as head coach and the entire team buying in, look for Iverson to return to peak form for at least one more season.
6) Michael Redd, Milwaukee Bucks
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
45.5 |
83.7 |
155 |
1509 |
389 |
151 |
91 |
10 |
95 | | Big Redd can flat out shoot the rock. He’s a fantastic 3-point shooter, but can also gamble for steals while keeping his turnovers low. Redd is clearly established as an elite fantasy 2-guard.
7) Corey Maggette, LA Clippers
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
44.6 |
82.5 |
69 |
1291 |
376 |
174 |
60 |
16 |
177 | | Maggette’s scoring, rebounds, assists, and percentages have gone up each of the last three years. He’s a player on the rise and he deserves attention fairly early. Not only that, he can play two positions and is likely to continue to log 35+ minutes a game.
8) Vince Carter, Toronto Raptors
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
44.2 |
80.6 |
69 |
1265 |
269 |
246 |
68 |
53 |
149 | | Here’s another player whose averages are skewed by injury. Still, even if his numbers are similar to what he put up last year, I don’t like him. He’s surly, discontented with his situation in Toronto, and I don’t think he really likes the game of basketball. What fun is it having a guy like that on your team?
9) Michael Finley, Dallas Mavericks
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
43.4 |
85.5 |
135 |
1337 |
364 |
209 |
80 |
30 |
99 | | Finley is the kind of player that makes your stomach turn to acid during the season. He’ll have incredible games where he fills up the box score, and then turn around and lay an egg. Over the course of a season, you’ll start him more than you should, but he’s still puts up solid, if not spectacular numbers. His scoring has dropped each of the last three seasons, so watch out for another decline. The rise of Daniels and the addition of Stackhouse mean his minutes may drop. Most likely guy on this list to be overrated.
10) Jason Richardson, Golden State Warriors
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
42.4 |
72.4 |
100 |
1372 |
451 |
237 |
88 |
32 |
188 | | JRich never made the leap. He’s a solid NBA player, but it just doesn’t look like he’ll ever get to Pierce or Allen levels. Instead, he’s going to brick a lot of shots, get some nice putback dunks, and run the floor – at least until his athleticism runs out. Not a bad option, but not a great one either.
11) Cuttino Mobley, Orlando Magic
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
43 |
83.5 |
138 |
1270 |
333 |
233 |
101 |
35 |
173 | | Cat does two things – shoots the three and steals the ball. His other numbers are ok, but they’re nothing to get uppity about. Over the last two years, he’s the 6th best stealing SG and 4th best in 3-pointers made. As Cassell would say, “That’s just what he do.”
12) James Posey, Memphis Grizzlies
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
44.5 |
83.2 |
91 |
1010 |
415 |
153 |
122 |
28 |
128 | | Really a SF, but Yahoo ranks him as both, so I’ll put him here. I like Posey as a fantasy option even though he doesn’t get assists, primarily because he scores, rebounds, and steals the ball. He’s one of three Memphis players that can make a huge impact on your fantasy roster.
13) Richard Hamilton, Detroit Pistons
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
44.9 |
85.1 |
25 |
1494 |
299 |
259 |
84 |
15 |
205 | | Rip was just plain nasty in last year’s NBA finals, too bad he can’t play like that all year. Still, he’s a good shooter who won’t hurt you anywhere except 3-pointers made. A solid option.
14) Doug Christie, Sacramento Kings
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
47 |
83.5 |
61 |
790 |
336 |
362 |
166 |
39 |
150 | | If his wife gives him permission, he’ll run away with the steals lead again this year. But that’s about it. Christie does have his moments, but he’s a clear liability when it comes to scoring.
15) Jalen Rose, Toronto Raptors
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
40.6 |
85.4 |
133 |
1816 |
351 |
395 |
72 |
23 |
285 | | Rose is never going to be a fan favorite because he has a big mouth that he rarely backs up. In the fantasy realm, however, he’s a valuable commodity. He’ll hurt you in two categories – FG% and TOs. Aside from that, he’s strong.
16) Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
42.8 |
76.9 |
70 |
756 |
253 |
215 |
116 |
17 |
131 | | Expect great things from Manu this year. I’d rank him higher except that they haven’t really sorted out his role yet. He should continue to rise as a fantasy star.
17) Joe Johnson, Phoenix Suns
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
41.4 |
76.2 |
79 |
1085 |
325 |
286 |
78 |
23 |
154 | | Johnson exploded on the scene last year and should continue his box score filling ways again this season. One note of concern – why add Quentin Richardson? Don’t they understand that that kills Q’s fantasy potential?
18) Eddie Jones, Miami Heat
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
41.6 |
82.8 |
138 |
1135 |
267 |
216 |
78 |
33 |
107 | | I’m not a big Jones fan, mostly because his numbers seem to fall every year. Still, he’s an able 3-point shooter who won’t kill you. Just don’t think he’s going to explode now that Shaq is around.
19) Allen Houston, New York Knicks
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
44 |
91.6 |
133 |
1385 |
176 |
160 |
46 |
5 |
140 | | Houston is a fantasy black hole every year. The shooting percentages and 3-pointers are nice, but what’s up with the rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks? This is what you get from a spot up shooter – a lot of standing around mixed in with some nice buckets.
20) Jamal Crawford, New York Knicks
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
39.9 |
81.9 |
126 |
1121 |
234 |
370 |
94 |
27 |
164 | | Some might see this low ranking as the ultimate sign of disrespect and they may be right. I’m not over the moon on Crawford and why should I be? Sub-40% shooting with average numbers all round and joining a crowded backcourt doesn’t sound like fantasy bonsai to me.
Two Extras, just for fun:
21) Larry Hughes, Washington Wizards
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
43.2 |
76.4 |
54 |
1003 |
317 |
177 |
91 |
25 |
144 | | Hughes makes this list because he’s the starting 2-guard for the Wiz this year. I’ve never been a huge fan, but he can score and steal when called upon. Worth having on your roster if you can get him, but not an every day kind of fantasy player.
22) Latrell Sprewell, Minnesota Timberwolves
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
40.6 |
80.4 |
117 |
1295 |
298 |
309 |
95 |
22 |
165 | | No list is complete without Sprewell, even if he is waning as a fantasy option. He still shoots the 3 and steals the ball, so he’s worthy of a pick. Some may prefer him over the likes of Allen Houston or Eddie Jones, but I look at him and see a player that, after the All-Star break, was entirely mediocre.
Other Interesting Names
Kerry Kittles, G, LA Clippers – New home in LA.
Jerry Stackhouse, GF, Dallas Mavericks – Will there be any minutes for him?
Quentin Richardson, SG, Phoenix Suns – Ditto in Phoenix.
J.R. Smith, G, New Orleans Hornets – Rookie sleeper that’s scoring in bunches.
Ronald Murray, SG, Seattle Sonics – Scores, but no D. May not get court time.
Morris Peterson, GF, Toronto Raptors – Shoots the 3.
Stephen Heidt is an avid sports fan who is also the Editor and a regular contributor to SportsFiends.com. Based in Washington, DC, he frequently engages in animated 'discussions' about all things sports. He encourages readers to submit questions and comments to sheidt@sportsfiends.com.
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