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NBA Fantasy Preview: Point Guards
Tuesday, October 26, 2004 - Stephen Heidt |
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Every year, it seems that there is a rush to draft point guards somewhere between the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the draft. This year should be no exception. With traditional favorites Jason Kidd (injury) and Gary Payton (age) waning, the story for point guard play is change. Young point guards and new scenery are the order of the day.
Selecting a point guard is more about deciding what you value, then about what each individual player brings to the table. At the upper level, the critical question is whether LeBron suffers from the dreaded sophomore slump and if Nash, Francis, and Terry can adapt to new offenses and put up top flight numbers.
1) LeBron James, Cleveland
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
1yr |
41 |
75 |
63 |
1654 |
432 |
465 |
130 |
58 |
273 | | Sure, Bron isn’t playing the point, but in fantasy land it doesn’t matter. As long as he’s point guard eligible, he’s number one at the position. Of concern is his shooting percentage and turnovers, but it says here that he’s ready to make the leap.
2) Baron Davis, New Orleans
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
41 |
69 |
143 |
1194 |
237 |
411 |
125 |
25 |
178 | | The Baron’s annual trip to the IR is becoming as regular as a Mark Belhorn strikeout. But when he’s hot, he’s hot. This year should be no exception. He’s the top 3-point shooting Point Guard as well as a leader in steals. Barely holds on to the 2nd spot.
3) Stephon Marbury, New York Knicks
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
43.5 |
81 |
88 |
1723 |
263 |
687 |
119 |
15 |
256 | | Quick question, who is the League’s top assist man over the last two years? If you said JKidd, you got it wrong. Marbury is an upper echelon PG because of two factors: assists and steals. The average point guard last season averaged 368 assists and 87 steals. Marbury dominates in both categories.
4) Steve Francis, Orlando Magic
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
42 |
78.7 |
79 |
1507 |
466 |
498 |
140 |
38 |
297 | | Francis is coming off a down year under the oppressive Jeff Van Gundy regime to a situation where he’s likely to be more Franchise-esque. Expect a similar shooting percentage but more scoring and rebounds (put backs on those bricked layups). Seriously, who else is going to score in that team?
5) Sam Cassell, Minnesota Timberwolves
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
48 |
86.7 |
67 |
1570 |
307 |
521 |
95 |
16 |
199 | | Putting Cassell this high scares me, primarily because he’s not a young buck anymore. Still, he shoots a high percentage from both the floor and the stripe, he’s gets tons of assists, and he won’t kill you in the steals department. I think there’s a big drop off between Francis and Cassell, but not enough to alter your entire draft strategy.
6) Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
46.7 |
91.2 |
108 |
1292 |
233 |
643 |
76 |
7 |
201 | | For the life of me, I can’t understand why Yahoo’s player rater has Arenas over Nash. Canadian Bacon shoots a higher percentage from both the floor and the stripe, is virtually the same on points and 3’s, and swamps him on assists and turnovers. Arenas does have an advantage in steals and rebounds, but Nash is the safe pick.
7) Gilbert Arenas, Washington Wizards
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
41.1 |
76.9 |
117 |
1288 |
320 |
395 |
114 |
15 |
258 | | Reality set in for Arenas last season as he had to adapt to a new team, a new city, and a new offense. That being said, he did ok. His turnovers were down, but so were points, shooting percentage, rebounds, assists, and steals. Not exactly instilling confidence in prospective fantasy owners, is it? Expect him to bounce back a bit with a year in DC under his belt.
8) Mike Bibby, Sacramento Kings
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
46 |
83.8 |
102 |
1191 |
212 |
365 |
92 |
13 |
151 | | Bibby is nothing if not unspectacular. Hand him the mediocrity award right now. In fantasy terms, Bibby is fantastic in turnovers, but that’s about it. The rest of his numbers are solid, just don’t grab him too early. There are lots of other guys in this range.
9) Andre Miller, Denver Nuggets
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
43.1 |
81.3 |
18 |
1151 |
341 |
519 |
121 |
18 |
211 | | If you’re wondering how a guy that averages about 17 3’s a year lands in the top 10 for point guards, that should tell you about the drop off in quality. Miller is a consistent and reliable performer. What you see here is what you get. He’s an elite PG in terms of rebounds, assists, and steals, but sub par in 3PTM, points, and turnovers.
10) Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
42.2 |
85.7 |
153 |
1377 |
308 |
519 |
125 |
15 |
239 | | I know what you’re thinking, Miller over Terry? By all rights, Terry should be higher in this ranking. But, he’s playing in Dallas. Not only is it a new situation, but he’s likely to have to split time with rookie Devin Harris and Dan Dickau. Ok, I’m lying about Dickau.
11) Jason Williams, Memphis Grizzlies
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
39.7 |
83.8 |
132 |
851 |
180 |
562 |
92 |
8 |
152 | | Does anyone want to explain to me how someone who nails 132 3-pointers only manages 851 points? If this guy had a mid-range jump shot, he’d be in the top 5. Instead, he’s merely sturdy.
12) Dewayne Wade, Miami Heat
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
1yr |
46.5 |
74.7 |
16 |
991 |
247 |
275 |
86 |
34 |
196 | | Wade was a rookie sensation last season, when he played. Once again, we have a talented player marked down because of question marks. He only made it through 61 games last season and he spent his time in Greece over the summer, allegedly “playing” for the US Team in the Olympics. I don’t like the sound of that. Taking chances on starters is a bad idea in fantasy hoops.
13) Kirk Hinrich, Chicago Bulls
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
38.6 |
80.4 |
144 |
915 |
259 |
517 |
101 |
21 |
204 | | Hinrich shocked the basketball world by proving that he’s a legit player. While his field goal percentage makes Baron Davis look like a sharp shooter, Hinrich was fantastic from beyond the arc and with the ball in his hands. Point guard is the hardest position in the NBA to play and rookies that excel usually get even better in their second year. I like his chances.
14) Gary Payton, Boston Celtics
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
46.2 |
71.2 |
55 |
1417 |
338 |
556 |
115 |
20 |
169 | | Does anyone else think this could be The Glove’s bounce back year? Seriously, from a fantasy perspective, what’s not to like? Before inhabiting the insanity that was last year’s Los Angeles Lakers, Payton was still a dominant, top 10 point guard. Now in Boston, he’ll be called on to score and dish in an up tempo offense that he’s perfect for. The only reason he’s so low on this list is because of that bad attitude.
15) Jason Kidd, New Jersey Nets
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
39.9 |
83.4 |
110 |
1266 |
466 |
665 |
151 |
20 |
255 | | By all rights, Kidd should be a top 5 point guard. But I have two grave concerns. First, he’s coming off major knee surgery. That’s not a good sign for an over 30 point guard that can’t shoot the rock. More importantly, Kidd is absolutely fed up with the situation in Jersey. Early reports say that he’s taking his time with rehab to force management’s hand. If you take him, don’t expect to see him until late December at the earliest.
16) Chauncey Billups, Detroit Pistons
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
40.7 |
87.8 |
140 |
1259 |
275 |
367 |
74 |
12 |
162 | | To say that I’m not enamored with Billups is to understate things. Yes, he had a good Finals last June. But when you boil it down to the brass tacks, is Billups really more than a scoring guard who shoots a low percentage? That’s what I thought too.
17) Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
45.5 |
72.8 |
72 |
1184 |
227 |
422 |
66 |
6 |
189 | | Parker was exposed in last season’s playoffs as not being enough. For your fantasy team, you can do worse. Andre Miller-lite.
18) Brent Barry, San Antonio Spurs
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
48.1 |
81.1 |
116 |
705 |
253 |
363 |
99 |
16 |
141 | | Barry does some nice things and he should only get better with Tim Duncan bringing double teams. That being said, he’ll share time with Ginobili and Parker, so he probably won’t improve enough to really bump him up the rankings. Still, he’s a great player to add to your team in later rounds.
19) Darrell Armstrong, New Orleans Hornets
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
40.2 |
86.6 |
107 |
805 |
261 |
317 |
134 |
15 |
158 | | Remind me again who is going to play the 2-guard in the Big Easy? The loss of Jamal Mashburn will once again create scoring opportunities for Armstrong. Don’t expect miracles, but he’ll put up the 3’s, if nothing else.
20) Carlos Arroyo, Utah Jazz
|
Avg |
FG% |
FT% |
3s |
Pts |
Rebs |
Asts |
Stls |
Blks |
T/Os |
|
2yr |
45 |
81.1 |
21 |
509 |
106 |
204 |
38 |
2 |
93 | | A true surprise to finish off the list. Arroyo is coming off a fantastic finish in the Olympics. Not only that, Raul Lopez, Utah’s other international point guard is out indefinitely with a knee injury. This could be the steal of the draft. Utah coach Jerry Sloan, notorious for never praising a player, has publicly commented that Arroyo looks great and is ready to get to the next level.
Other Interesting Names
Ben Gordon, Chicago Bulls – Rookie sensation?
Nick Van Exel, Portland Trailblazers – This was inevitable, wasn’t it?
TJ Ford, Milwaukee Bucks – Can he stay healthy?
Bobby Jackson, Sacramento Kings – Feisty, but limited playing time.
Marco Jaric, LA Clippers – Could show improvement.
Jeff McInnis, Cleveland Cavs – Maybe the best of the rest.
Jamal Tinsley, Indiana Pacers – Improved during the year, must watch.
Damon Stoudamire, Portland Trailblazers – Hits 3’s.
Rafer Alston, Toronto Raptors – Ditto.
Not Interesting at all
Derek Fisher
Chucky Atkins
Eric Snow
Speedy Claxton
Stephen Heidt is an avid sports fan who is also the Editor and a regular contributor to SportsFiends.com. Based in Washington, DC, he frequently engages in animated 'discussions' about all things sports. He encourages readers to submit questions and comments to sheidt@sportsfiends.com.
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