A mid-season draft is a whole other beast. While you still have your usual studs, you also have to take into consideration a whole new batch of players who have had surprising first halves.
To help you out, I have ranked the top hitters, starters and closers. Rankings are based on first half performance as well as expected second half production. I’ve also included some players who were probably ignored in the spring draft but who could make a difference this time around.
Top 10 Hitters –
1) Albert Pujols, 1B, LF – St. Louis. Pujols was the first pick in many spring drafts and that should continue for the midseason. While a couple guys currently have better overall stats, his numbers are right where they should be. His average is down a bit, but .325 isn’t going to hurt most owners in the category.
2) Vladimir Guerrero, RF – Anaheim. Anyone who doubted Guerrero’s bad back and ability to adjust to the AL can rest their case. He slipped to the late first, early second rounds in the spring but shouldn’t last past the third pick this time. His SBs are down, but you can expect 40+ HR, 130+ RBI and an average around .330.
3) Barry Bonds, LF – San Francisco. We all know the story by now. They don’t pitch to Barry and fantasy owners pull their hair out. But you just can’t ignore his numbers. We’re looking at another typical Bond’s season: lots of homers and a stellar average. His RBI will suffer again due to the AB problem, but it’s not enough to let him slip in your draft.
4) Alex Rodriguez, 3B – NY Yankees. The former perennial first pick had a slow start but now appears real comfortable at his new position and in his new home. His numbers are down so far, due to the adjustment period. But with the Yankees lineup finally hitting their stride, expect plenty of RBI and his usual 40+ HRs. And keep an eye on his SBs. He’s on pace for around 20.
5) Scott Rolen, 3B – St. Louis. The toughest job for a midseason drafter is judging whose first half is a fluke. Rolen’s numbers thus far are amazing: a .357 average with 16 HR and 62 RBI. Looking at Rolen’s track record, the time seems right for a breakout year. While he certainly won’t keep up the same pace for the second half, don’t expect much of a drop off. I’d snag him in the second round.
6) Bobby Abreu, LF – Philadelphia. Fantasy owners have always loved Abreu for his solid average and valuable HR/SB combo. But an increase in power has generated even more excitement. He should reach a career high in home runs and his usual 30+ SB.
7) Carlos Beltran, CF – Kansas City. His numbers so far are fairly typical, with a slight drop in SBs. But his power is up and that should result in a career high in HRs. While his best years are still to come, he’ll still get his 30+ steals with around 35 HRs.
8) Lance Berkman, LF – Houston. After a so-so 2003, Berkman is back to his old self this season. He’s a safe bet to repeat his numbers of 2001 and 2002: 40+ HR and 125 RBI.
9) Manny Ramirez, LF – Boston. More of the same from Ramirez. He’s batting .340 thus far and will reach his usual 35 HR and 100+ RBI. Don’t let him last past the second round.
10) Alfonso Soriano, 2B – Texas. Like Rodriguez, Soriano had to adjust to his new surroundings and now is reaching his comfort zone. His numbers are definitely unlike his previous two seasons, but expect a big jump in HR and SB in the second half.
Top 10 Starting Pitchers –
1) Randy Johnson – Arizona. The 40-year old has regained the top spot after last season’s injury plagued mess. I wouldn’t let him slip past the third pick. Remember, pitching is in higher demand and Johnson shows no signs of slowing down.
2) Jason Schmidt – San Francisco. Schmidt has proven that last season was no fluke. Schmidt is now in his prime and will have almost identical numbers to last year. He’s a giant in all four statistical categories.
3) Curt Schilling – Boston. As long as he stays healthy, Schilling is still the dominant ace he’s always been. You won’t see another 300K season, but low ERA and WHIP with a win total flirting with 20 is expected.
4) Roger Clemens – Houston. While his age says 41, his body says 31. He was understandably passed on during the spring drafts, but is worth an early round pick after his remarkable performance thus far. Some will still worry about how his body will hold up. But seeing how much he puts into his conditioning, I wouldn’t hesitate to make him my number one starter.
5) Mark Mulder – Oakland. Mulder has become the ace of aces in Oakland. His wins may suffer as Oakland’s offense suffers, but he has proven consistency in ERA and WHIP and will still get around 17 wins. If your strategy is pitching first, take one of the above mentioned in the first or second round and Mulder in the third.
6) Carlos Zambrano – Chicago Cubs. Often overlooked thanks to Prior and Wood, Zambrano has actually emerged as the best starter in Chicago for the time being. Only 23 years old, he’s already proven consistent in ERA and will surely reach career highs in wins, Ks and WHIP. You can steal him in the mid-rounds as he will still slip under the radar.
7) Javier Vazquez – NY Yankees. With the Yankees offense just warming up, I see no way that Vazquez won’t have over 20 wins. Throw in a WHIP around 1.00 and an ERA in the low to mid 3.00 range and you have struck fantasy gold.
8) Pedro Martinez – Boston. Don’t count out Martinez just yet. It’s evident that this isn’t the Pedro of old. But then again, nobody is! He is a risk but a risk worth taking. Assuming he stays relatively healthy, he’s still get you 15+ wins, a decent ERA and 200+ Ks at worst.
9) Mike Mussina – NY Yankees. His high ERA will scare many off, but shouldn’t. He has regained his old form as of late and like Vazquez, will reap the rewards of the Yankees high-powered offense. I expect second half numbers far better than the first.
10) Mark Prior – Chicago Cubs. I’m playing it safe by listing him at number ten, but he could easily return to near the top of the list in the following weeks. He was dominant in his first start back but shaky in his second. As long as his Achilles’ and elbow hold up, he should be fine.
Top 10 Closers –
1) Eric Gagne
2) Armando Benitez
3) Mariano Rivera
4) Keith Foulke
5) Joe Nathan
6) Francisco Cordero
7) Billy Wagner
8) Danny Graves
9) Trevor Hoffman
10) Eddie Guardado
Top 10 Surprises –
1) Melvin Mora
2) Danny Graves
3) Jeremy Burnitz
4) Chris Carpenter
5) Paul Wilson
6) Ken Griffey Jr.
7) Craig Wilson
8) Matt Lawton
9) Moises Alou
10) Brad Penny
Justin Sablich is Journalism student at SUNY Cortland in New York. He will be covering Fantasy Baseball and MLB for SportsFiends.com and is currently writing for various other online publications, covering music, sports, and just about anything else. Questions, criticisms, and comments are welcome. Send them to pprozac36@yahoo.com.
